Can Mt Kenya tycoons deliver popular vote to Raila?

Tycoons from Mount Kenya have chosen ODM leader Raila Odinga as their choice to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. 

Their announcement of the former Prime Minister has elicited a huge debate as political players unravel what that means for their own self-interest.

Elder Pius Ngugi, in a colourful event at Safari Park on Wednesday, decorated the ODM leader saying they “feel he is a friend we can trust".

“We want to see Raila as the leader of this country. If we are going to fulfil that mission, we must be together. We must be united,” Ngugi said.

The owner of Kenya Nut Company called on the region to unite, saying it was “shameful to allow yourself (Kikuyus) to be divided".

His sentiments set the tone for the group that is ready for the long haul to marshal resources to back the Raila presidency 'to correct past wrongs'.

“Is there anything in correcting something wrong? No looking back. I will sell my rabbits. Let us not gamble. This is not time for gambling.”

“If Raila leads us to darkness, we will look for torches. We know he is a leader of light,” Ngugi said, sentiments echoed by many who were present.

Raila promised to respond to the list of demands by Mt Kenya on Friday hen he declares his fifth presidential bi.

The region has never backed Raila who has been portrayed as a bogeyman and rabble-rouser, the antithesis of their corporate interests. 

Political observers say it is clear the elders and business community have decided to back Raila.

The question is, how much of their support and money will translate into votes, especially votes from hustlers?

Deputy President William Ruto enjoys popular support in Mt Kenya and has left little chance to let his support be chipped away.

Past analyses have indicated the DP, for every three meetings he holds, two involve Mt Kenya. He just concluded tours of Laikipia and Nyeri this week.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Peter Munya expressed confidence they will extinguish Ruto’s influence in Mt Kenya, thanks to President Kenyatta’s support.

MKF deputy chairman Titus Ibui is expected to lead their troops to Raila’s big meeting on Friday at Kasarani in a show of solidarity with ODM.

“Today, our leaders and leaders of UPYA will convene here early in the morning and walk to Azimio la Umoja rally at Kasarani,” Ibui said.

The Mt Kenya Foundation came to the fore in the country's politics in 2017, previously having been operating from the background.

They influenced the 2007 and 2013 elections when they backed President Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru, respectively.

Everyone is watching whether they will deliver the Mt Kenya vote to Raila, in the face of concerted forays by DP Ruto.

Political pundits presented mixed opinions on whether MKF would have influence in the prevailing polity.

Recently released opinion polls by Radio Africa Group and research firm Tifa showed Ruto enjoys a huge following in the region, with Raila trailing.

Political analyst Martin Andati said the tycoons will have some influence.

“Though they will have some influence because of money, it will not be as much as in the past,” Andati said.

Prof Gitile Naituli said the tycoons will not succeed in influencing the succession.

“They won’t manage. Many of them are linked to corruption scandals," he said.

“Organising a friendly government is an attempt to protect their corruption and people know that,” the ex-NCIC commissioner said.

He added, "Those who believe in a clean Kenya will not allow themselves to be led by protectors of corruption again.”

Prof Gitile further told the Star in an interview that Raila would be better off by being his own man than associating with the Mt Kenya tycoons.

“He should go back to his old self. He is one of the least corrupt leaders we have. He should reject the pampering by these people. He risks looking like a figurehead continuing to protect corruption,” he said.

Prof Edward Kisiangani, a member of DP Ruto’s think-tank, also dismissed the tycoons’ influence on the 2022 equation.

He said the group is out of touch with the people, further accusing them of being “responsible for some of the economic tribulations that people are going through”.

“They are employers and thrive on marginalising people who don’t have means like them and they think they can use their money to direct people to where they vote. They will not succeed,” the don said.

Prof Kisiangani said the tycoons lack the mettle to shape the political direction despite their monetary strength.

“How many of them can win an election? They are not like the late Kenneth Matiba who was widely accepted because he had a human heart. These members of the Mt Kenya Foundation are not in touch with people.”

“They cannot win elections. If they stand for elections, say in Murang’a, they will lose,” the history don said.

Kieni MP Kanini Kega, a key pillar of Raila’s campaign in Mt Kenya, said the foundation has a crucial role to play. “Every person is a stakeholder,” he said.

The MP explained that in Mt Kenya, the team forms part of the region’s three pillars – leaders, the warriors and the rich people.

“We say matajiri wetu wako mara tatu – tajiri, viongozi, and our heroes. They (MKF) are not playing alone. The issue of succession is not just for politicians,” he said.

“They would want a person who would come and create a good business environment for them. They are not outsiders.”

Kega said that the involvement of the business community in politics is a global practice.

“Anywhere in the world, including America, businesspeople have a critical role to play. It is no different in the MKF case. They are entitled to a say. In fact, they have a bigger stake,” the National Assembly Budget Committee chairman said.

“If the political environment is not good, their businesses will not thrive. They work hand in hand with politicians to make sure we get good leaders. It is not the question of whether we will succeed or not, we will succeed together.”

Political risk analyst Dismas Mokua agrees the Mt Kenya tycoons will influence the outcome of the 2022 presidential elections.

“Mt Kenya tycoons have harnessed the factors of production to get to the apex of Kenya’s capitalism.”

“They are, therefore, uncomfortable with any candidate who is a threat to Kenya’s national security interests,” he said.

Mokua said the group needed “a candidate who is a visionary and who would give them peace of mind".

He observed the tycoons have resources that can assist and tilt the 2022 outcome.

Mokua said the team has a soft spot for a “candidate with strong economic credentials and capacity to suffocate impunity, mediocrity and corruption.

“All over the world, the rich and powerful influence elections outcomes and Kenya is no exception,” Mokua said.

Elections are due on August 9, 2022, with DP Ruto and Raila the front-runners.

MKF demanded the implementation of the one-man one-shilling criteria for allocation of resources, more money for counties, a fair share of government and creation of a post-election violence victims fund.

The foundation first met with Raila in late September when they were clear they would want someone 'who would let them mind their own business'.

The group includes Equity Bank group chairman Peter Munga, former KRA boss Michael Waweru, former Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru, NGOs board CEO Mutuma Nkanata, George Muhoho, Pius Ngugi, SK Macharia, Equity CEO James Mwangi, former Ken Gen boss Eddy Njoroge, Magnate Ventures founder Stanley Kinyanjui and Wanderjoy CEO Isaac Wandere.

Days later, they hosted Oka leaders Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Gideon Moi before meeting Northern Kenya leaders in early November.

The group has not met Deputy President William Ruto.

Its backing is touted as a big win for Raila as it is believed to come with a huge financial war chest to compete with DP Ruto’s free-spending campaign.

(Edited by V Graham)