I am an experienced politician, the second professor of politics after Moi and I can predict that perhaps a wave will build that will completely change the 2022 politics.
Former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo has declared President Uhuru Kenyatta has no mandate to anoint his successor.
And he shouldn't tell voters in a democracy who to vote for.
The man who played a key role in uniting President Uhuru with his deputy William Ruto in 2013 said the President should allow Kenyans to decide who will lead them.
“We gave him the mandate for 10 years, he is finishing that mandate, someone else will come. He can’t tell Kenyans who to choose next year. No. He is our leader and can speak to us persuasively but not by force,” Kabogo said.
In an exclusive, wide-ranging interview with the Star, Kabogo who is also the leader of the Tujibebe Wakenya Party, also warned that Kenyans are about to make a dangerous decision on Uhuru’s successor.
"If they decide poorly, which they may, they will be in for it, they will suffer the more. As it is, they are suffering right now," he said.
Kabogo, who lost his Kiambu governor’s seat to Ferdinand Waititu in 2017 before the latter was impeached, also said Deputy President William Ruto should not celebrate that he has taken over the Mountain.
Kabogo said it is still too early for anyone to celebrate. He compared it to the run-up to the 2002 presidential election when the battle was a two-horse race between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta before the "Kibaki Tosha" declaration.
He spoke to the Star about 2022 succession politics, Raila and Ruto's ambitions and the future of his Tujibebe Wakenya party.
Q and A
ODM boss Raila Odinga and DP William Ruto have emerged as front-runners to succeed President Uhuru. Who can you vouch for?
...either Raila or Ruto is going to become president next year. While we cannot rule out the emergence of a third force, the race is between Raila and Ruto. However, the people of the Mountain must interrogate the track records of each man so we get a leader with a performance record and not a failure who cannot take the country anywhere.
What about a Raila presidency? Has the ODM boss been able to climb the Mountain?
I can see Raila up there on the Mountain near the peak. Baba is a great leader who has sacrificed his all for the country. I dare say Kenya will never have another man like Raila. Baba is not a man you can write off. He is the only politician who can swear himself in as the people’s president and nothing happens. Just let others, even Ruto try swearing themselves in and they will rot in Kamiti. You can’t rule out somebody who got over five million votes.
The President has no business deciding for Kenyans who is going to be president after him. He has served his tenure and when that time comes, he will exit and a new president will be sworn in, in August next year. He can only give just his personal views.
What about a Ruto presidency? Are the DP’s fortunes dwindling on the Mountain?
To start with, what is his track record? He has been a minister for many years, what did he do for Kenyans so voters can elect him? This thing about the bottom-up model is just being hyped for nothing, yet it's not new.
It was President Daniel Moi who started the bottom-up model through the District Focus for Rural Development. Then-President Mwai Kibaki brought in the Constituency Development Fund. Isn’t the CDF a bottom-up economic model? Voters will look at what these leaders stand for or have done. Some are just promising, why promise when you have an opportunity to do what you are saying you will do next year? The people of the Mountain will make rational choices when it's time to vote.
How well is President Kenyatta managing his succession?
The President has no business deciding for Kenyans who is going to be president after him. He has served his tenure and when that time comes, he will exit and a new president will be sworn in, in August next year. He can only give just his personal views.
He is a human being and entitled to that. What he can't tell us is what to do, that is not his mandate. We gave him the mandate for 10 years, he is finishing it. He can’t tell Kenyans who to choose. No. He is our leader and can speak to us persuasively but not by force.
We are expecting too much from a sitting president in terms of transition. Not many presidents determine their transition. He can't determine where we will go next year. No, he will be at home, that's for sure. Our destiny is in the hands of Kenyans; let them decide. If they decide poorly, which they may, they will be in for it, they will suffer. As it is, they are suffering right now.
You were part of the team that crafted the UhuRuto machine in 2013. What do you think went wrong between the President and his Deputy?
They are the people who should tell us. As the head of state, perhaps the President knows what we don’t know. When he is saying he will not hand over power to a thief, I think the President should tell us if a thief is vying and name him. Kenyans may elect a thief without knowing and therefore, he should be elaborate.
He should act and take those people to court to be proven guilty or not guilty, instead of prosecuting them in the court of public opinion. Only the President cannot be taken to court while in office. The rest can be taken to court and tried and if jailed for more than six months, then they will cease to hold public office. Uhuru and Ruto worked together very well in the first term but we can't tell what transpired in the second term.
Rut the President was largely in control from 2013 to 2017. We should judge him based on what he delivered then. Perhaps in the current term, he is not at the centre of things. Each of the two should account for what they have done for Kenyans.
Is the presidential contest a two-horse race between Ruto and Raila?
There are two horses at the moment, yes: Raila and Ruto, in whichever order, that is what people say. That is why they are all camping in Mt Kenya for the votes they say are up for grabs. I predict we may have a surprise. I am not a witch or prophet but I suspect a surprise.
Many people are quietly wondering is this all we have, but a day in politics is so long. I am an experienced politician, the second professor of politics after Moi and I can predict that perhaps a wave will build that will completely change 2022 politics.
Just as in 2002 when everyone thought the race was between Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta, a new dispensation was birthed on October 14. A tsunami happened and Kibaki Tosha happened. Kibaki was overwhelmingly elected President. Surprises are always possible but I predict a surprise. Something might happen that will take the government elsewhere.
How high are the stakes in 2022?
Kenya is a very explosive society in terms of politics. God forbid, we are on the verge of breaking it or making it, this election will either break Kenya or make Kenya. Plant whatever you want and that is what you will harvest.
Sow bad leadership and you will harvest bad leadership. We do elections and we start complaining the following day. You can't elect a bad leader then start complaining when bad things start emerging. Elect good leaders and if you elect bad leaders. shut up for the next five years.
What's your advice to the people of Mt Kenya?
Choices have consequences. We were warned in 2013 that choices have consequences but we ignored that. We have been forced to endure those consequences. I'm sad about what I am seeing. Kenyans are about to make the very mistake they made in 2013. From 2013 to 2017, the President and his Deputy worked together. Let us judge them based on what they delivered from 2013 to 2017.
I am seeing a calamity ahead if we are not careful. Some people started campaigning since October 2017 and have been telling lies. They are now celebrating that they have taken over the Mountain, telling the same lie all the time. It is never done until it is done. It can be taken out of your mouth. It is too early to celebrate. Those people waiting for a swearing-in! No.
What do you think about the recent defections in Mt Kenya?
Those are people pursuing their own interests. There is nothing like a UDA wave in Mt Kenya. The people of Mt Kenya are going to elect leaders based on their capacity to improve their livelihoods. We are not going to give away our elective seats to foreign parties. Our people are going to elect governors, senators, MPs and MCAs. In fact, we have said we shall give them (presidential candidates) the presidency but the other seats belong to our parties.
Parties like my Tujibebe party will give a rough time to the so-called big parties. Tujibebe party is determined to ensure Kenyans have the capacity to uplift themselves.
What are your plans for 2022? A comeback in Kiambu?
It is still too early. Nairobi is available and Kiambu is too. The presidency is also available. You never know. For now, my focus is to build the Tujubebe party and ensure it has a presence all over the country. Currently, we have offices in 27 counties, we open more and recruit new members.
We have seen enough problems and my party aims to offer solutions. Taxation has killed business and our people are suffering. Imagine if I get like 20 MPs in Parliament. I will ensure I hold the government to account.
(Edited by V. Graham)
