The European Union is well known for being a tough negotiator. One that high-tails it to the bitter end before conceding points, usually while sitting on their exhausted opponent. The EU smells weakness like an expert smells wine, taking in every nuance.
As a result trade negotiations with the EU are a marathon, not a sprint. The outrage of the French, charm of the Dutch, steel of the Germans. You have to be fit. We have seen the EU kick the UK like a football, until the UK refused to play and then they took a time out. But they are not done kicking the UK. The UK is quite rich, smart and tough. They are not done kicking back. Can Africa do the same?
Today the EU, through trade agreements called Economic Partnership Agreements, seeks to impose on Africans ‘sexual and reproductive health and rights’, ‘comprehensive sexuality education’, ‘comprehensive sexual and reproductive health information and education’ as defined by the UN’s controversial ITGSE and to provide ‘universal access to sexual and reproductive health commodities’. ‘Gender identity’ has to be fully respected. It also wants the EAC to enter new legal commitments unrelated to bilateral trade as well as elevate certain soft law to treaty level.
So can African nations cut it against the EU? Or will they cave and eg sell out African women who are adversely impacted, identity stripped and harmed by the EU’s transgender agenda or ‘gender identity’ provisions. East Africans are religious and socially conservative, how does that square.
An EU trade agreement is particularly needed by Kenya, the only lower-middle-income country in East Africa that is on the clock for access to EU markets. It doesn’t get the automatic favourable access Least Developed Countries do. This means the EU can impose tariffs and quotas on Kenya if the East African Community does not agree to non-trade related social and other terms. Here, the EU sniffs weakness.
Interestingly, Brexit has helped East Africa. The UK is Kenya’s main European market and a substantial market for other East African countries. This makes an agreement with the EU less urgent and Tanzania has called for a re-assessment in light of Brexit. ‘Better the Brits we know than the faceless European Commission’. But for Kenya, an EU deal is still important to its struggling Covid-hit, debt-burdened economy.
The EU exports more to the EAC (€3.6 billion) than it imports (€2.1 billion in 2020). It had a €1.5 billion trade surplus, bigger than its 2019 surplus and growing. Not big bucks for the EU. In context, the UK has a GDP £25.6 billion trade deficit with the EU and they are still fighting.
Now depending on where you sit, you may be happy, or frustrated, that the EU is seeking to impose values on Africa. Colonial overreach? Or a big power trying to protect the vulnerable? Irrespective of your personal views, there is something ugly about the way the EU is holding a knife to Africa’s neck. Kenya’s in particular. The interference in African society and legislative overreach will likely have ugly consequences and cause dislike, if not resentment. ‘China does not do that’ is a common refrain.
For the EU, trying to impose its own controversial values on Africans is simply bad policy. Trying to connect unrelated dots will backfire. Africans are sensitive to the imposition of foreign values at the barrel of a gun. It will not help the EU diplomatically and will only harden the views of those opposed to what the EU is trying to do. It will also boost China.
The EU may see itself as a dynamic political and economic power, bringing peace, solidarity and prosperity to its members. To the rest of the world it is as bland, characterless, amorphous and weird as WTO, IMF, UN or Mr Potato Head. They need to jazz it up. Like Kofi Annan made the UN interesting. Maybe the EU should decide it is an ‘is’ not an ‘it’. Then at least during endless tedious negotiations everyone can say ‘the EU is, is here’. Maybe the EU should also try to understand Africa better.
Far better for the EU to engage on straightforward trade terms, create goodwill and enter separately into discussions on matters like transgender positions, with understanding and respect that societies have legitimately different views, noting, there isn’t even a consensus in the West on this issue.
Most of all, the EU will increasingly be seen as a rough colonial-mentality power, blackmailing and bullying Africans with no regard for those it holds economic power over. This means Africa will choose China over the West despite the risks that poses.
That is dangerous for the West. And for Africa. The EU needs to think again. And the EAC needs to fight the EU’s legislative overreach and War on Women*, as equals and friends, kind of, who are drawing a firm line.
“It is an all out assault on the culture and national sovereignty of ACP states, making financial aid to them contingent upon implementing controversial and harmful provisions.”
Senior finance lawyer
