Kenya has witnessed a very rare brand of politics under the Jubilee administration whereby President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto folded their two political parties to form a giant party called Jubilee.
President Uhuru had TNA, while his deputy had URP, the two political parties merged and formed the Jubilee Party.
But as they continued in the administration, it became blindingly obvious that the two politicians were never compatible.
President Kenyatta was looking at his legacy, while his deputy was looking at succession, hence, the instability within the ruling Jubilee.
At some stage, there were some dynamics when Ruto wanted to control the party and he failed in his scheme. This created an opportunity for his friends and allies to form UDA, which he has now joined informally. He has not resigned from Jubilee.
In the upcoming Jubilee National Delegates Conference meeting, the probability of the President Kenyatta kicking out his deputy is 100 per cent.
President Kenyatta has got absolute control of the party called Jubilee and whatever he wants happens.
NDC will merely be a mechanical process, it will be ceremonial for purposes of meeting the legal framework.
However, even if you kick Ruto from Jubilee as deputy party leader, you will not kick him out as the Deputy President of the Republic of Kenya.
William Ruto’s position as the Deputy President of Kenya is protected by the Constitution and the only time Ruto will cease being the DP is when, on his own volition, he decides to resign or his term of office ends.
As we approach the 2022 general election, most political personalities are forming their own political parties.
There is a high chance that President Kenyatta will form a coalition with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, Gideon Moi and Moses Wetang’ula to avoid a runoff
Jubilee suffers from various serious brand liabilities and will do everything to run away from reputational liability.
There is a high chance that whatever President wants to achieve with the party he will achieve.
The President is trying to create political insurance so that when he retires he wants to influence political outcomes in Kenya.
The analyst spoke to the Star
(Edited by V. Graham)
