Unlike what Oketch Kendo seemed to imply in a recent article in The Star, the kingpinship of Ukambani is not up for grabs. Yes, there are other leaders from the community who have voiced intent to run for President, but the two matters cannot be linked by conjecture.
Kalonzo ran for president in 2007 and finished decent third despite the contested outcome. In that election, Ukambani voted for him almost to a man. In 2013 and 2017, his joint ticket with Raila are widely believed to have won both elections. The 2017 presidential election was nullified.
The point here is that Raila-Kalonzo ticket made an indelible mark in Kenyan politics.
Kalonzo tops the leadership in Ukambani as the indisputable principal and kingpin. He is a key contender for flagbearer of the One Kenya Alliance, which cannot be taken for granted because it has key Kenyan leaders who have important history. They are occupying important political space, and they are not asleep to prevailing political dynamics. Even if he may not be considered a leading contender at this time, he will have great influence as to who becomes next president. It is a no-brainer.
Either Raila or DP William Ruto will be forced to negotiate with Kalonzo, craft an alliance, or even endorse him. It may sound utopian but politics is about to get murky because the nature of it now, owing to the tribal arrangements of kingpins, makes Kenya like a sacco.
The Kalonzo of 2007 seems to have been reborn. He will not allow bullying from any quarters. To become president, a candidate will need the currency of another in the form of control and influence. This is political realism.
He has mentored many, not excluding the other leaders Kendo mentioned in his article. For starters, Governor Alfred Mutua entered politics through Kalonzo’s endorsement and that is chiefly how he won Machakos — by enjoying the Wiper leader’s goodwill and political ready vehicle while being opposed by then Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama. He was supporting Wavinya Ndeti then.
Governor Kivutha Kibwana has many a time been forced to hang onto Kalonzo’s coattails when he couldn’t manoeuvre his way in Makueni politics. When MCAs made it difficult for him to get things done, Kalonzo stepped in.
In 2017, he had to sign a pact with him to ride on his influence and recapture the seat. It is not possible to even imagine anyone else would manage to catch up with Kalonzo or displace him less than a year to the next elections. As they say, you do not cut the umbilical cord that fed you.
As Kalonzo demonstrated by making Kavindu Muthama a senator that he has serious acumen and influence in Ukambani that cannot be taken for granted. Unlike other political leaders who have sometimes had to unscrupulously mess up nominations to curtail the influence of others, Wiper party has remained united for the longest time. It is other strong leaders who keep joining in while very few leave.
If Muthama could not edge out Kalonzo in Ukambani, who can? It is not yet time. Those who understand these subtleties like senators Mutula Kilonzo Jnr (Makueni) and Enoch Wambua (Kitui) have become ardent party operatives. The future belongs to them.
An MCA seat somewhere in Makueni cannot be used to make an audacious assumption that Kalonzo’s political star is waning, not unless we want to engage in small talk.
Former Chief Justice Willy Mutunga has expressed his intent to bring back Miguna Miguna from Canada. When Miguna’s story is told, one thing that stands out is how his supposed-to-be erstwhile ally Raila abandoned him at the time of need and when he had viciously supported him. Miguna is quite brave, bright, and knows Raila very well.
Miguna might be aggressive, but whenever Raila hit a dead-end, he turned to the man for a reengineering. The 2007-08 period is a great example as all can remember the late Samuel Kivuitu squarely targeting Miguna from among Raila’s team to have him to cool down.
Long story, but if Miguna is to return, Raila might become a weak candidate, and maybe the system weight might be diverted to the Oka flag bearer. Kalonzo is the most seasoned player in it. Kenyans will most likely gravitate towards the safer hands, considering Ruto’s aggressive politics and history that will provide fodder for very murky politics.
