The Northeastern region is at a crossroads on which political formation will give them a bigger share of the cake in the 2022 General Election.
The region is up for grabs, its leaders say,with ODM leader Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto touted as the frontrunners.
Some quarters say a joint ticket of the One Kenya Alliance bigwigs would be sellable as well, but that would depend on which horses will last in the homestretch.
With Raila yet to declare if he'd be in the presidential race, observers say that the 'apparently more organised' United Democratic Alliance is an advantaged position. It is linked to DP Ruto.
Northeastern is usually government-leaning, hence, Raila's support base is built around those backing the handshake.
Each of the prospective candidates’ historical relationship with the clans, a key factor in the region's politics, has also come into play.
Leaders say their choice will depend on how a party plans to tackle sprawling insecurity, a teachers’ shortage, closure of schools, marginalisation and infrastructure development.
Gains for the contenders, they say, will depend on the direction taken by elders with roots in the Ogaden, Hawia, and Degodia communities .
ODM has enjoyed the region’s backing following its history of agitating for the rights of the marginalised — the fight for ID cards, condemning extrajudicial killings and promoting a constitutional referendum.
Some quarters say Raila's 'tactical error in fronting the BBI with few or no benefits for the region may well erode support in his traditional constituency.
The ODM leader could also take some blame for initially backing President Uhuru Kenyatta in the revenue-sharing formula, which is said to further marginalise the region.
Jubilee, they say, has problems fighting perceptions it has not delivered on many promises it made in 2013 and 2017.
Given the prevailing situation and the uncertainty of the BBI outcome, there is yet to be a clear picture of the trajectory the region would take in 2022.
Ruto’s stakes rest on the fact he has a pastoralist background and is in a way being credited for gains Northeastern made in Jubilee's first term.
Garissa Township MP Aden Duale, a stalwart in Ruto’s camp, told the Star he believes the majority will go coalesce around the newly formed UDA.
“UDA is the closest party to the pastoralists’ agenda. William is viewed as a pastoralist. He has been close to pastoralist communities,” he said.
He conceded, though, a lot of people are hanging because they want to know the clan dynamics, but was confident the majority will follow what senior leaders like himself say.
“Even so, the race for Northeastern vote is between Ruto and Raila,” the former National Assembly Majority leader said. Mandera Senator Maalim Mohamud is among key leaders in UDA.
“I can tell you for free the party we want to sell in Northeastern as pastoralists is UDA since a majority of Kenyans are for the hustler narrative.”
The lawmaker argued the only serious competitor with UDA could have been the ODM party but that appears to have changed since the handshake.
“The handshake has eaten into Raila’s historical constituency. The clan factor is going to be key but they are likely to go with the side that is best placed to form the next government,” Duale added.
Ruto is viewed to have done more fundraising for the Muslim community than any other leader, which is said to bring him very close to the voters.
He is also viewed as the hand behind the high number of pastoralists who secured state jobs in the Jubilee administration – largely in the first term.
Wajir South MP Prof Omaar Sheikh, fronted as the political leader of the Ogaden community, said, “It is true we are at a crossroads. There are huge challenges because of new players in the politics of Northeastern.”
He said the core of their concerns is that the government's term is ening, with no big projects in Jubilee's track record.
Prof Omaar said they will work with a team that will give the region serious consideration in the future government, adding that they have the numbers to warrant the bargain.
“The other important thing is that Nasa is still struggling. UDA appears to be ready and moving forward but that doesn’t mean that we agree with UDA. The division between the two major frontrunners is a factor in our choice,” the MP said.
“The situation is still murky since with a year to go to the election, there is no clear picture of a candidate. The poor performance of the economy is a serious challenge.”
Prof Omaar said any new contender would be required to have the best benefits and that elders are yet to sit and decide. “Any group that will tell us the important goodies on offer is the one we will support.”
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, and Baringo Senator Gideon Moi have a clean record, hence, they are largely acceptable, save for the fears they lack the mettle to win.
Former Lagdera MP Farah Maalim says every party is welcome — but not Jubilee— adding that DP Ruto faces an uphill task in disassociating himself from the party’s perceived failures.
He further observed that Ruto has also modelled himself as a Christian right-winger, hence, risks being criticised as intolerant to other faiths.
“He keeps saying this is a Christian nation, yet the Constitution says it is a secular state. Because of his showing a lot of intolerance to other faiths, he’ll get nothing from Northeastern.”
Maalim too says the “region is pretty much up for grabs,” adding he doubts Raila will have any good friends within the province if he runs.
“If push comes to shove and is a run between Raila and Ruto, it will be interesting to see how we will look at it ourselves. It is going to be a choice between two bad choices,” the former deputy speaker said.
He said he was of the “firm opinion that probably people might prefer to go the Ruto way, the biggest windfall for him being where he runs against Raila.
“Many people don’t trust Raila since he doesn’t keep promises. If Kalonzo would be a presidential candidate, he has a high chance, following his good record. If he joins forces with Musalia and Gideon Moi, that kind of vehicle is what the people may want,” Maalim added.
The former MP Ruto holds that the DP has little chance, Raila doesn’t stand any chance, “but the others have a lot of goodwill".
Over the years, the turnover of MPs has been high, hence, one can’t gauge the region using MPs. Presently, fewer than five MPs have served two or more terms.
(Edited by V. Graham)
