In last week’s column I made the argument that however grim things may be for the hospitality sector at this time of the coronavirus pandemic, the long-term prospects for Kenya’s tourism are bright.
Provided Kenya remains a dominant 'African safari destination', we can tap into the ever-growing global middle class, which is a high-spending cohort with a taste for exotic destinations.
The concept behind this was in fact best articulated over 60 years ago, in a book I have quoted before. In his bestseller on his work in what is now the Serengeti National Park, Serengeti Shall Not Die, the German zoologist Dr Bernhard Grzimek effectively laid out the theoretical framework that provides the rationale and justification for a relatively poor African nation to set aside vast tracts of land for the exclusive habitation of wildlife. This is what he wrote:
“Large cities continue to proliferate. In the coming decades and centuries, men will not travel to view marvels of engineering, but they will leave the dusty towns in order to behold the last places on earth where God’s creatures are peacefully living. Countries which have preserved such places will be envied by other nations and visited by streams of tourists. There is a difference between wild animals living a natural life and famous buildings. Palaces can be rebuilt if they are destroyed in wartime, but once the wild animals of the Serengeti are exterminated no power on earth can bring them back.”
Given how long ago he wrote this book, one has to wonder if Dr Grzimek could have possibly guessed that a good number of these "streams of tourists" would be local indigenous people.
The book was written at a time when none of the countries in East Africa were independent and the possibility of an indigenous middle-class of any size was a remote and implausible dream; one might even say a fantasy and a delusion.
And yet, here we are.
But all the same Dr Grzimek was spot on when it came to the psychology of what is now known in hospitality circles as 'the African safari experience'.
It is an essential component of the 'bucket list' – one might even call it a 'core value' – of many middle-class people in Western Europe and North America that they must venture to various exotic locations at least once.
And so where 'an average Kenyan' will take a loan to buy a piece of land in some peri-urban location just outside a major city, many foreigners (and increasingly, local tourists too) will think nothing of paying for an exotic holiday on credit.
But we should also note that what we are offering the global hospitality industry is a very specific niche product: 'The wilderness experience'.
That is what motivates tourists, in Dr Grzimek’s words, to “leave the dusty towns in order to behold the last places on earth where God’s creatures are peacefully living”.
And as we are not the only country that has such spaces, the question arises as to whether or not our regional dominance will be challenged.
For example, when Nelson Mandela was sworn in as the new president of a fully democratic South Africa in May 1994 ending decades of isolation for that country, many regular visitors to Kenya from Europe chose to explore the South African option instead of coming to Kenya.
So, while continued growth in tourism numbers is possible (and along with it, greater job creation) regional dominance cannot be taken for granted.
At some level, Kenya’s success in providing this sought-after 'African safari experience' (by now second only to South Africa on the continent) has been a by-product of a purely accidental advantage we have over our nearest competitor, Tanzania. This is the relative absence in Tanzania of the essential support infrastructure that makes for seamless connections between airports, beach resorts, and safari destinations.
But it can only be a matter of time before Tanzania gets its act together and comes up with the kind of infrastructure that will make travel to its game parks just as easy and convenient.
What Kenya needs to do before that day comes, will be the topic of my next column.
