MAY WEATHER OUTLOOK

Long rains season to end in May - Weatherman

Landslides may occur in hilly areas of the highlands west and east of the Rift Valley.

In Summary

• There is a likelihood of flooding in low-lying areas and flood plains especially over the Western parts of Kenya where occasional rainfall is expected.

• Counties in the Coastal region are likely to experience below-average rainfall.

A motorcyclist wades through water during heavy rains in Kenya's capital Nairobi March 9, 2016.
A motorcyclist wades through water during heavy rains in Kenya's capital Nairobi March 9, 2016.
Image: REUTERS

The long rains season is expected to come to an end during the month of May in many parts of the country except for the Coastal region and Western Kenya.

According to the Director of Meteorological Services Stella Aura, the outlook for May 2021 indicates that several parts of the Lake Victoria Basin region and Western Kenya; Central and Southern Rift Valley are likely to experience slightly enhanced rainfall.

Counties in the southeastern and North-eastern are likely to receive near-average rainfall.

Counties in the Coastal region are likely to experience below-average rainfall.

The distribution of the rain is likely to be poor in the Northwest, Northeast, Southeast, and the Coastal region.

Rainfall is expected to continue during the month of May in the Lake Victoria Basin; Highlands West of the Rift Valley; and Central and South Rift Valley.

However, the rainfall amounts are expected to be above average during the first half of the month and near average during the second half of the month.

The rains will continue into the month of June.

Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu counties are likely to be characterised by near to slightly above average rainfall during the first half of the month.

Occasional rainfall is likely to occur during the second half of the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the region.

Above-average rainfall is expected during the first half of the month in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya.

The rain is likely to be conducive for agricultural production, especially in the high-potential counties in the Lake Victoria basin Region, Highlands West of the Rift Valley as well as Central and Southern Rift Valley.

There is a likelihood of flooding in low-lying areas and flood plains especially over the Western parts of Kenya where occasional rainfall is expected.

Cases of lightning strikes are still likely in the Lake Victoria Basin and highlands west of Rift Valley and landslides may occur in the hilly areas of the highlands west and east of the Rift Valley.

Rainfall performance in April

April marks the peak of the Long Rains (March-April-May) season.

The month began with dry weather conditions over several parts of the country except for the Lake basin, highlands west and east of the Rift valley where occasional rainfall was experienced.

The most enhanced rainfall of 337.7mm was recorded at Suba station. This was followed by Kisumu at 276.9mm, Kabete at 272.3mm, and Kakamega at 271.3mm.

Other stations that recorded more than 200 mm include Kericho, Kitui, Kisii, Dagoretti, Kangema, Embu, Thika, Wilson, and Moi Air Base.

Several stations reported rainfall that was less than 100mm with Lodwar recording the lowest amount at 2mm.