We have to study what Deputy President William Ruto did in Msambweni constituency for us to understand what he is likely to do in Nairobi.
In Msambweni, he stayed away. The DP never went there so that the local people would assume it was a local fight between Governors Hassan Joho (Mombasa) and Salim Mvurya (Kwale) and other politicians there.
Once victory was delivered, Ruto took the credit. He publicly came out to congratulate the winner calling him his friend.
Now, can he be able to do the same in Nairobi City County? The answer here is No. Why?
First, Nairobi is not a small place like Msambweni. It is a place where President Uhuru Kenyatta has personal interest in. He has taken keen interest in it. It has the Nairobi Metropolitan Service (NMS) in it.
Secondly, Nairobi is a county that has been ruled by ODM and Jubilee respectively. So, we are seeing a situation where both ODM and Jubilee parties have a stake in the capital city.
Thirdly, it is going to be virtually, and in fact, impossible for the President and ODM leader Raila Odinga to take it casually the way they did in Msambweni.
But we also need to ask ourselves; would Ruto field a candidate where there is a Jubilee candidate? In Msambweni, there was no Jubilee candidate. But here, most likely, there will be a Jubilee candidate.
The way things have been; where the President has not fielded a candidate in favour of Raila where his party previously held the seat, then Uhuru and Raila will field one candidate in Nairobi.
Will Ruto have the guts to do that himself when the President has fronted one on Jubilee ticket? The answer is No.
There is no way the President is going to allow that a pro-DP person is fielded. That is impossible. That is not going to happen.
The Political analyst spoke to the Star on phone
