Girded for battle: Ruto Raila 2022 war begins

It's official: the 2022 battle between ODM leader Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto is on.

After a brief hiatus caused by Covid-19, the duo has embarked on aggressive 2022 succession campaigns to ring-fence their territories and capture new bases.

Both Ruto and Raila have defied stringent Covid-19 restrictions —including social distancing and bans on big gatherings — to ramp up support by holding meetings countrywide.

For the first time since his handshake with President Uhuru Kenyatta on March 9, 2018, Raila is going flat out to fortify his turf, aggressively marketing his ODM Party after a two-year lull.

Raila appears to have secured the backing of his two deputies — Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and his Mombasa counterpart Hassan Joho — both of whom had declared they would run for president.

Last weekend, Raila spent Saturday night at Oparanya's Emabole home in Butere before meeting party MCAs at the same venue on Sunday.

Present at the night talks were Kanduyi MP Wafula Wamunyinyi  and Bungoma Governor Wycliffe Wangamati. Wamunyinyi leads a faction claiming to have taken over the Ford Kenya leadership from Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula.

In a surprise twist the following day, Oparanya signalled he would shelve his presidential ambitions and be a team player in Raila’s squad.

“Where we are going in 2022, I will take up the role you will decide I play. I have told these people I am retiring from county politics, I want to play national. On the national scene, you will see an opportunity and decide which one suits me,” Oparanya declared.

On Friday Raila toured Kwale county after a two-day tour of Taita Taveta county in the company of Mombasa Governor Joho, considered the Coast kingpin.

Oparanya and Joho initially had announced they would throw their hats into the presidential ring, in what would have triggered friction within ODM.

Sources say the declarations by allies of President Kenyatta that they would rally Central Kenya, the country’s biggest vote basket, has given the Raila team fresh impetus.

The former Prime Minister is expected to visit Kilifi and Mombasa counties before wrapping up his Coast tour on Sunday.

Raila has controlled Coast politics for more than 15 years.

Raila's ODM is already conducting meetings in most branches to strategise on how to rejuvenate its bastions - the clearest indication Raila is planning a fifth stab at the presidency.

On Friday, top ODM officials led by executive director Oduor Ong'wen and secretary-general Edwin Sifuna met grassroots leaders from select counties.

The party is also reforming itself and reorganising internally; it recently reconstituted its National Elections Board.

To win new allies, Raila has bagged the support of Taita Taveta Governor Granton Samboja, dealing Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper Party a major blow at the Coast.

DP Ruto, who had confined his campaigns to Nairobi for the last six months, has moved out of the capital with gusto to win votes.

On Thursday, Ruto made a triumphant entry into Kisii and surprised his rivals with the huge crowds at his rallies.

Ruto is determined to neutralise Raila's popularity in the region that overwhelmingly voted for the opposition in 2017.

Analysts have warned, however, the early campaigning will take a toll on the country's struggling economy, already battered by Covid-19.

“It is going to be rather wasteful of resources and time and that could attract a lot of corruption to sustain the campaigns,” former Cabinet minister Franklin Bett warned.

Bett, once a top ODM official, told the Star President Kenyatta is definitely losing control and politicians are going hammer and gongs to position themselves in his succession.

“These campaigns have become so difficult to control for the President and they will result in a dip in national revenue and consequently impact government projects,” he warned.

Political analyst and university don Macharia Munene told the Star on Friday Raila will definitely be in the ballot.

“Ruto and Raila are the 2022 presidential candidates. They are going for each other because they know they will face off,” the USIU history and diplomacy professor said.

Munene said temperatures will continue to rise as Ruto and Raila tackle each other.

“Each will be trying to make the other look bad in their game of politics," he said.

The DP, who is already boxed out of state power after falling out with the President, is pulling out all the stops to rally national support for his 'Hustler Nation'. 

Ruto has fashioned his quest for the presidency as a battle between hustlers and the so-called dynasties, comprising the Kenyatta, Odinga and Daniel Moi families. It's basically a haves vs have-nots narrative.

Counting on general disaffection with the establishment, the DP seeks to turn the tables on Raila, once his friend. It was the Uhuru-Raila handshake that began Ruto's exclusion from state power.

Ruto has already rolled out his women and youth empowerment programme to most parts of the country with major harambees lined up.

Lifting the lid on his growing tension with Raila, the DP on Thursday uploaded to his social media accounts video clips of his speech in Kisii. He juxtaposed them with the ODM leader's speech in Taita Taveta.

“Forgive that man (Raila) because his father was a vice president and he may not understand the struggles. He doesn't know about boda boda problems because he was born and found himself being chauffeured,” Ruto said of Raila.

His comments follow Raila, while touring Taita Taveta, questioning Ruto's source of wealth used to buy equipment for women and youth worth millions of shillings.

“We have seen him give the youth wheelbarrows, tanks and boda bodas yet his salary does not get to even Sh2 million a month. Where is he getting the millions he is using, yet this money is not in the public coffers?” Raila asked.

In another signal Raila would be on the ballot, Oparanya last week asked the ODM leader to consider him for a national government post in 2022.

“I am graduating from the lower league and want to move to the senior league. I will be comfortable with whatever position you will give me up there,” Oparanya told Raila during a meeting at his Kakamega home.

Oparanya and Joho are banking on the Building Bridges Initiative report to help them play national politics after completing their maximum two terms as governors.

Oparanya previously asked Raila to support his 2022 presidential bid, saying he was ripe to succeed him as the OMD's flagbearer.

(Edited by V. Graham)