Why it won't be easy for Gideon to topple Ruto in 2022

Though he was anointed by his father, former President Daniel Moi, Baringo Senator Gideon Moi faces an uphill task to topple Deputy President William Ruto as the political kingpin of the vast Rift Valley.

Both men have said they want to be president, Gideon is yet to trumpet his ambitions.

This past week saw Ruto's Harambee House office embroiled in a fake arms tender. The office was the stage for 23 minutes but Ruto wasn't present and there's no evidence he was knowledgeable or involved. Still, it's a problem he doesn't need.

The DP is seen as a master political tactician with far-reaching political lessons from former President Moi, who in the end refused to receive Ruto and let him kiss the ring.

Politicians and analysts say Ruto's political agility, his massive war chest and unrivalled generosity put him head and shoulders above Gideon's fledgling political credentials and experience.

Even as Gideon challenges Ruto, many argue the DP is a known tenacious political fighter with impeccable oratorical skills in Kalenjin. Gideon's Kalenjin is average and he has been known to take lessons — he may have to do so again.

Ruto has a massive following in his Rift Valley bastion and beyond. He has the potential of handing Gideon a humiliation that could erase the powerful Moi family from the political scene.

Some observers say Gideon can easily activate the old Kanu networks of his father, riding on the Moi political brand and give Ruto a run for his money in Rift Valley.

Gideon, who is serving his second term as senator, is said to be latching onto the  Building Bridges Initiative wave to build his profile and position himself in the succession matrix. Both President Uhuru Kenyatta and his new friend ODM leader Raila Odinga passionately support BBI.

An alliance between Gideon and Raila, analysts say, could throw a spanner in the works of the Ruto camp. Raila's near-fanatic following and Gideon's possession of Moi's ivory-tipped Nyayo Rungu could be a potent combination. But Ruto is a survivor.

“Ruto failed to listen and bring together the community. He left Gideon on his own and underestimated his significance in Rift Valley politics. Unless Ruto starts to listen and bring people together, Gideon might be a man not to dismiss just like that,” former Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett said.

The former Buret MP, who was a key figure in ODM when the party swept Kanu from Rift Valley, said the DP must strive to reach out to other leaders like ex-Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto if he is serious about his presidential bid.

“The South Rift is almost sliding away from the DP because of people just failing to realise the importance of uniting the community,” he said.

WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN 2022?

Actually, it was Ruto's political savvy that popularised ODM through an aggressive approach that vanquished the careers of senior Kanu stalwarts in the Rift Valley during the 2007 elections.

Then smarting from a successful 'NO' campaign against the 2005 referendum, which had birthed ODM, Ruto led an aggressive onslaught against Kanu in the 2007 polls, resulting in the massive defeat of the one-finger-salute party.

After the polls ODM swept the parliamentary seats in the whole of Rift Valley region, handing Ksmi massive casualties.

Gideon, who just five years earlier had replaced his father as the Baringo Central MP, lost his parliamentary seat owing to the ODM campaign spearheaded by Ruto.

Raymond Moi, another son of Daniel Moi, also lost his bid for the Rongai parliamentary seat on a Kanu ticket to Luka Kigen. His brother, the late  Jonathan, lost in Eldama Ravine constituency to Moses Lessonet of ODM.

In fact, the Independence party, Kanu, only managed 14 seats nationally, with Hellen Sambili being the other lucky politician to retain the Mogotio parliamentary seat on a United Democratic Movement ticket.

Even as Moi's sons lost their MP elections, Kanu and by extension Moi, lost all the MP seats in his Baringo backyard in 2007.

As regional bigwigs fell by the wayside, firebrand Kanu secretary general Nick Salat was among the Kanu heavyweights swept away by Ruto, having lost the Bomet parliamentary seat to ODM's Kipkalya Kones.

RUTO'S MUSLE

With history on his side, Ruto is sauntering into the 2022 presidential election, confident he has the political wherewithal to parry any challenge that might be posed by Gideon's Kanu.

Despite the vicious storms roiling his Jubilee Party, the slights and insults to Ruto himself, the wars with his opponents and the doubts about the President's loyalty to him, the DP remains focussed.

He is assembling a presidential campaign juggernaut that he hopes will carry him to State House and crush opponents beneath its wheels.

On Thursday, Soy MP Caleb Kositany, a key Ruto ally, downplayed any political danger posed by Gideon or Kanu both in the battle for the Rift Valley and State House.

Kositany, who is also the Jubilee deputy secretary general, told the Star that Jubilee does not fear losing its grip on any part of the Rift because of the planned revitalisation of Kanu.

“Jubilee is still the party to beat in the Rift Valley and still enjoys enormous support. At the moment, there's no other strong party in the region,” he said.

The politician said Jubilee will soon roll out a countrywide programme to popularise the party and revamp its grassroots offices.

But University of Nairobi lecturer Herman Manyora told the Star that Ruto should wake up from his slumber and read the writing on the wall.

He claimed there's a plan within the 'deep state' to position Gideon for a formidable role in national politics.

“When the ongoing plan to finish Ruto is over, Gideon will be brought in as a presidential candidate in the 2027 presidential polls,” he said, adding that the 2022 presidential election may not involve Moi's youngest son.

“The 2022 elections will be a negotiated game plan. I am seeing a situation where a presidential candidate will be agreed on by the system to hold brief as Gideon is prepared to take over in 2027," Manyora said.

Gideon, who seeks to revamp the Kanu Independence outfit to spoil the party for Ruto, would need to assemble a massive political war chest, if he stands any chance of turning tables against the DP in their backyard. The Moi family is immensely wealthy and powerful, however.

Nursing ambitions to succeed his boss, President Kenyatta, the DP has launched a vigorous onslaught against his adversaries to shore up countrywide backing.

Gideon is yet to begin campaignings to popularise Kanu and make public his 2022 ambitions — indecision, critics say, that could leave Ruto with a field day to buttress national support.

Although Gideon is yet to publicly declare his 2022 presidential interest, his Kanu stalwarts, including secretary general Salat, have hinted the party will stop at nothing in the Uhuru succession race.

“This 2022 means a lot to us as a party; we are going to do vigorous grassroots sensitisation and Kanu is not an island, we are also looking forward to really taking our rightful place in this country’s political landscape,” Salat told the Star.

Kanu heavyweights have made it clear that the passing of Moi's sceptre was an endorsement of Gideon, not just as Moi's heir apparent but also the region's political figurehead.

The die is now cast for a vicious political showdown pitting Ruto against Gideon as the 2022 political landscape shifts fast.

The events following the burial of Moi at his Kabarak home, highlighted by the anointing of Gideon as heir to the throne, gave the clearest signal that the Kanu cockerel is determined to crow again.