Kenya-Djibouti wars, the delicate balance in seeking UNSC seat

In June this year, Kenya is expected to battle it out with Djibouti for Africa’s representative at the United Nations Security Council.

The two countries have found themselves in a delicate balance as they try to lure other African states to vote for them.

Last week, Kenya hit back at Djibouti for contesting its endorsement by the AU as Africa’s sole candidate for UNSC non-permanent seat for the 2021-22 period.

Through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kenya said it no longer considers the matter about the candidature but the values and the principles it has chosen to abide by.

The move came after Djibouti President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh issued a statement saying by AU endorsing Kenya's candidature, it violated the rules and procedures.

President Guaelleh said Djibouti ought to be Africa's sole representative for the non-permanent seat for the 2021-22 year based on the Africa groups and AU's clear rules and longstanding precedents for selecting a candidate.

He said Djibouti with the support of many fellow African countries openly and vigorously challenged the validity of the flawed endorsement in 2019.

"The AU Executive council decision not to endorse the 2019 recommendation of the AU PRC evidently makes the recommendation by this committee to endorse Kenya for the African Group's 2021-2022 non-permanent United Nations Security Council clearly illegitimate and void," Djibouti said.

But Kenya in its response said it has remained restrained, choosing to run a dignified campaign that upholds African values and which focuses on the contribution it intends to make towards creating a just and peaceful world.

Kenya said it is disturbed by a persistent and dishonourable campaign that Djibouti has been using to misrepresent the facts.

The ministry said while AU's endorsement for Kenya's candidature was final and not subject to review, attempts to have the executive reconsider the matter in Addis Ababa found no traction among the AU members and were flatly rejected to extend that Djibouti failed to raise the issue at the Assembly of Heads of State and Government.

“Kenya, therefore, distances itself from any campaign that brings dishonour and disrespect to the African Union and any of its Member States," read a statement to newsrooms.

Kenya said AU's endorsement is its responsibility to carry the hopes and aspirations of Africa.

"It is a responsibility for which Kenya is well prepared and a duty that Kenya embraces with deep sense of purpose," the statement read.

Kenya had earlier asked the AU to ensure it protects its integrity and fidelity to its procedures over Djibouti's insistence to continue its bid.

Foreign Affairs CS Raychelle Omamo, while appreciating AU’s endorsement of Kenya as Africa’s candidate for the UNSC seat, talked of the need to ensure the organization's procedures are respected.

"CS Omamo appreciated AU’s endorsement of Kenya as Africa’s candidate for a non-permanent seat of the UNSC for the period 2021-2022 and expressed Kenya’s conviction on the need to protect the integrity of the Union and fidelity to its procedures," Foreign Affairs said in a dispatch on February 12.

Omamo raised the issue with AU Commission chairman Moussa Faki in Addis Ababa, with sources saying she sought clarification on why Djibouti is still in the race.  

Kenya in August last year won the second round of voting at the AU, effectively getting the UN Security Council endorsement.

It garnered 37 votes against Djibouti’s 13 in a vote taken in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Kenya was, after the vote, confident that with AU’s endorsement, it would have an easy campaign to secure the seat.

How did it start?

In November last year, Kenya officially started its UNSC lobbying for the UNSC seat. It was led by CS Monica Juma, then in charge of the Foreign Affairs docket, and PS Macharia Kamau.

Ambassador Tom Amolo was named the Special Envoy for the campaign under the banner 'Kenya is ready to serve'.

 Kamau maintains the representation in the UNSC is significant because it is the second-most important arm of the UN after the General Assembly.

"It deals with global peace and security and every country is entitled to sit at the council. Kenya’s candidature signals its responsibility and contribution in the peace and security process world over,” Kamau said.

The face-off with Djibouti comes after the Horn of Africa state declined to concede defeat, in an AU election for the position in August last year.

The Conversation reports that the council enjoys robust powers, including the imposition of sanctions and authorisation of military action when international peace is threatened.

Given the Council’s preeminent role in international affairs, it is not surprising that most states aspire to be members.

There are five UN member states – the US, the UK, Russia, China and France — also referred to as the P5.  

The other 188 member states can be elected to a non-renewable two-year term.

Only 10 member states can fill those non-permanent slots at a time, meaning at any one time, there are 15 member states in the Council.

The non-permanent members are Belgium, whose two-year term ends this year, Cote d’Ivoire (2019), Dominican Republic (2020), Equatorial Guinea (2019), Germany (2020), Indonesia (2020), Kuwait (2019), Peru (2019), Poland (2019) and South Africa (2020).

Kenya and Djibouti are seeking to replace South Africa for 2021-22.

While the Council’s decisions are taken by a qualified majority, requiring support from nine of its 15 members, only the P5 can veto.

Kenya has served twice previously as a member of the Council – in 1973-74 and 1997-98.

According to an article in The Conversation, Kenya stands a better ground because it brings to the table its experience of supporting unstable governments in Somalia and South Sudan, and in assisting refugees in the region.

Which way for Kenya?

Non-permanent members are chosen according to a formula to ensure broad representation across the world. Three seats are filled by African states —Niger and Tunisia last month replaced Ivory Coast and Equatorial Guinea.

Kenya is enjoying the endorsement of the AU with a considerable 37-13 margin, going by the endorsement vote.

This was after the second round of voting by the Permanent Representatives Committee. AU countries make up 28 per cent of UN membership.

Foreign policy observers say the AU endorsement places Kenya in a better position.

Kenya’s bid picked up momentum in November last year following backing by EAC states Uganda, Burundi, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Rwanda.

The AU, which has no vote at the UN, agrees to endorse a member state “to act in its name” at the Security Council

Kenya needs the support of two-thirds of UN members (129 votes) to win the seat.

Nairobi is banking on its 10-point agenda in its campaign — building bridges, peacekeeping and support operations, regional peace and security, countering terrorism and prevention of extremism and women peace and security.

Others are youth empowerment, humanitarian action, justice, human rights and democracy, environment and climate change agenda and sustainable development goals agenda.

Maritime Dispute 

But Djibouti is using the current maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia to downplay Kenya’s candidature and water down its commitment to the maintenance of regional peace and security.

The Conversation also indicates there is a possibility that Kenya and Djibouti could share the seat, a situation that has happened before, with the recent case being in 2016-17 between the Netherlands and Italy.

Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mohamud Yussuf Ali last year threw an indirect jab at Kenya claiming only his country was capable of helping stabilise Somalia.

Speaking to diplomats in Djibouti, he argued that Kenya is likely to use the seat to exert undue pressure on Mogadishu, and hence destabilise the country even more

“If elected, Djibouti will relentlessly promote the obligation of all states to uphold international law in the maintenance of peace and security, and advocate for a recommitment to a multilateral, rule-based international order,” said Djibouti President Guelleh in his address to UNGA in New York.

Why Kenya needs the seat

 Other than ensuring geographical balance and commitment to the United Nations’ mandate, non-permanent members of the Security Council are elected on the precedence of their contribution to the maintenance of

Kenya views itself as the best candidate because its troops are part of the African Union Mission in Somalia that supports the fight against al Shabaab terror group.

Professor Macharia Munene who teaches International Relations at USIU-Africa told the Star that Kenya’s presence at the Council will be of great value, but will depend on her interests and values for its citizens.

Munene said Djibouti’s insistence on the race is likely to be out of external forces against Kenya.

“There could be extra continental forces having issues with Kenya that are pushing Djibouti to downplay AU’s endorsement,” he said.

Munene’s sentiments are echoed by John Gachie, a former Foreign Affairs editor at the Nation, who said Kenya stands at a better position bearing in mind the interests it has for the region, especially the fight against terrorism.

“Kenya is seeking to have a grip on the new level on the Horn of Africa. The bid is thus very vital for the country,” Gachie said.

“It is true that Djibouti plays host to military bases of France, the US and the latest China and that they are the main entry to the Gulf and the Red Sea. However, as much as the military presence gives them an advantage over Kenya, they would have to trade with the bid carefully not to jeopardise relations with AU, which has already endorsed Kenya,” he said.

He added that Kenya remains the largest trading partner with the P5. As a result, Kenya remains the only gateway to a larger African market.

“These five states will have to play a careful game so as not to show a preference. You wouldn’t want to imagine how, for instance, Kenya would react if China or America endorsed Djibouti and vice versa,” he said.

Gachie said the states would have to do a critical analysis of what benefits them in terms of trade for Kenya or Military strategic interests for Djibouti.

“There is a high likelihood that any endorsement might send a wrong signal to the other side,” he added.

“AU support notwithstanding, Kenya has leverage with a large bilateral interest. Although AU has made its determination to endorse its candidature, it has no powers to sanction Djibouti,” he said

Gachie further noted Djibouti’s insistence to be in the race might put its future relations with the AU at stake.

Despite its military presence in Somalia, Kenya has also offered immense support in the political process in Somalia.

Kenya has also been on the frontline in supporting peace processes in South Sudan, having played a critical contribution to the brokerage of the Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan in 2011, and more recently the implementation of the Revitalised Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan signed in September 2018.

“Kenya has made its way to the international category by its tremendous support to humanitarian work. We host approximately 500,000 refugees in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps most of them from South Sudan and Somalia,” a diplomat in the Foreign Affairs ministry told the Star.

 “This is why in our view we stand a better chance to allow as progress and expand this work to other African countries,” he said.

Nairobi has avoided talking about the maritime dispute with Somalia in its campaign messaging, insisting the row should be resolved through negotiations. Somalia insists the case should proceed to its full hearing.

The UNSC seat will provide a good avenue where Kenya can pursue an alternative resolution of the maritime dispute through talks.

The Conversation says, “Apart from the opportunity to elect who sits as judges at the ICJ, the UNSC members reserve the prerogative of determining the existence of threats to peace among nations,”.

 “The UNSC then advises on actions for peaceful resolution of such disputes and decides where sanctions or military force can be applied”.

So, as Kenya contends with the hurdle of defending its position in the case at the ICJ against Somalia, a seat at the UNSC would make Kenya stay a-foot on the matter.

What is at stake?

Four months to the election, Kenya must work to outdo the claims by Djibouti and convince the international community of her commitment to maintaining peace and security in the region.

Kenya will also need to accelerate her campaigns for maximum international support, and ensure compliance with the court. Experts say this will be the only way to help neutralize the counter-narrative by Djibouti.

A three-bench judge last week confirmed that Kenya will not pull out of the maritime proceedings an indication it is ready to take chances and proceed to full hearing if Somalia does not head to the calls of an out of court settlement.

But considering the lobbying Somalia has done, Kenya will have to desist from actions that may appear to antagonise or cause actual contempt of the Court.