- Even as Kalonzo tends to shy away from the negotiations, his camaraderie and warmth when conversing with the DP suggest deep ties.
- Ruto has dissuaded the Wiper leader against waiting for endorsements, citing ‘the difficulty of working with Raila’.
Image: DPPS
Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka’s men are spending spend long nights with Deputy President William Ruto's men who want him to be the DP's running mate in 2022.
The DP's emissaries include former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama, MPs Vincent Musau popularly known as Kawaya (Mwala), and Victor Munyaka (Machakos).
Musau, an insider in the negotiations, told the Star that they are confident a poll pact will be worked out and they will team up. The Wiper boss is a safe pair of hands and should team up with Ruto as his running mate and second-in-command, he said.
“ODM leader Raila Odinga is a no-go for Kalonzo. Kalonzo cannot run by himself and automatically that leaves him with no option but to team up with William [Ruto],” the first-term MP said.
“We will keep trying to negotiate with him (Kalonzo) and make him understand that what we are saying is the truth.”
But some of the Wiper leader's backers say he should run for president and shouldn't play second fiddle to anyone.
Kibwezi East’s Jessica Mbalu told the Star, “Kalonzo is the most accepted and would definitely shore up support for Ruto even in the most difficult areas. He is the safest pair of hands. He is corruption-free, humble and has presidential qualities."
Kiema Kilonzo, Kenya’s High Commissioner to Uganda, who is a key voice in Ukambani, says the former Vice President should run for the top seat.
Munyaka, saying the talks are ongoing, said a pentagon is also viable, should the Building Bridges Initiative yield more posts.
“We are yet to reach the point of talking of success as we are still building bridges. It is one idea in a big process…there is going to be a lot. It is still too early," he said.
DON'T WAIT FOR ENDORSEMENT
Last weekend, Kalonzo hosted Ruto for a two-day tour of the Lower Eastern region. The DP asked residents to allow the Wiper leader to deputise him.
Ruto urged Kalonzo not to wait for endorsements, citing "the difficulty of working with Raila".
A number of legislators from Machakos, Kitui and Makueni counties attended the meetings and a rally at Kvumvi, Machakos.
Even as Kalonzo tends to shy away from the negotiations, his warmth and camaraderie when conversing with the DP suggest a positive relationship.
The question is: how much would their coalition impact on the required 50 per cent+1 requirement for a presidential win?
President Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto, when they were backed by the two vote-rich regions of Mt Kenya and the Rift Valley, still faced a threat from Raila's Nasa camp.
With signs that ODM still has a grip on the region and commands a huge following — Coast, Western, and Nyanza — observers say Ruto and Kalonzo have a lot of work to do.
Lower Eastern, the IEBC voter register shows, has 1,518,360 voters, while Rift Valley has 4,650,843 — together accounting for 31 per cent of the country’s total 19,611,423 votes.
The Coast has 1,714,038 registered voters, Northeastern 719,022, Mt Kenya 4,136,824, Western 1,927,297 and Nyanza has 2,688,717.
Owing to these numbers, Kalonzo’s men say he has very limited options and can’t risk betting on some miracle that President Kenyatta would endorse him as his successor.
“Emissaries have been sent to him to drive out the falsehood that he can succeed the President. Our problem is that the formula of ‘how-to’ is yet to be established,” Musau said.
The team expects to garner 95 per cent of Ukambani vote in a Ruto-Kalonzo deal, abut the former VP going alone would only get 50 per cent.
Political analysts are split on the success rate of an alliance.
Dr Charles Nyambuga of Maseno University says he doesn’t see the DP and Kalonzo breaking through, especially with Raila and Uhuru on one side.
He says Kalonzo holds sway over Lower Eastern but that, combined with sections of the Rift Valley, cannot give them the numbers.
“Ruto was relying on Western but the region is lately pro-BBI, hence, it could still be with Raila. Since Coast is under the ODM juggernaut, there is still work to be done. However, Ruto is a clever politician and can still pull some surprises,” Nyambuga said.
ODM chairman John Mbadi said Ruto is acting in desperation or “attempting to blackmail his competition that he can craft another alliance”.
“It is not a question of adding one tribe to another but what one stands for,” the Suba South MP said.
“Their ticket would be an interesting one. I am sceptical about it. I don’t think the numbers are on their side unless they team up with other leaders,” he added.
Mbadi argues that Ruto is not like Raila whose significant support stretches beyond the ODM leader’s Nyanza bastion.
But Prof Edward Kisiangani of Kenyatta University disagreed, saying “a Kalonzo-Ruto ticket is lethal, hence, it can’t be ignored.”
The political studies don says with his massive support in the Rift Valley, Ruto’s alliance with the Wiper leader has a high chance of success.
“If you do a quick poll now, you will find that Ruto will beat Raila in Western. His teaming up with Kalonzo will change the dynamics. His is not a card you can ignore,” Kisiangani said.
He argues that if Ruto goes to Ukambani with “his articulation and brilliance, he can cover up for Kalonzo’s weakness and people can buy the ticket.”
The other factor is the team bringing together Ukamabani governors Alfred Mutua (Machakos), Charity Ngilu (Kitui), and Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni).
The trio has teamed up with Raila and is promising to give Kalonzo a run for his money as they seek to push him out of the region.
Mutua, expressing confidence that he now commands Ukambani, told the Star that Kalonzo “is quickly becoming a non-factor as people are freed from years of mind control".
“Today, our research shows that Kalonzo is polling at only 40 per cent of Ukambani support compared to the 100 per cent he enjoyed two years ago,” the governor said.
“The ground has shifted fast and by the end of this year, he will be at less than 20 per cent with a few people still supporting him out of nostalgia.”
“Voters have realised they have been supporting a person whose main agenda is to use the Kamba population to enrich himself and retain himself in power." Mutua said.
He said the development the three governors — Ngilu, Kigwana and him — have spurred by cooperation will be a plus to their polity.
“With the development that we have initiated in Ukambani, people’s lives have changed and they are no longer the wretched of the earth and, hence, harder to lie to.”
His team says Ruto is only working with Kalonzo, having known that he “can be used to confuse Ukambani that they are working with Uhuru and Raila.”
But whether he teams up with Ruto or not, Kalonzo’s key negotiators say they will proceed with their campaigns for a Ruto presidency.
The Wiper leader says he is keen on alliances that are not built on a tribal basis, adding that this is among issues the BBI is tackling.
“We must unit Kenya so that it makes sense for anyone who wants to be President or Prime minister. Right now, it’s problematic,” Kalonzo said recently.