Elusive unity stalks Western as Big Five battle for Luhya vote

It's the moment of truth in Western — once more.

The question of elusive unity is rearing its ugly head.

Voters must decide whether they will put their differences and personal ambitions aside, rally together and back a single candidate who has a chancing of doing some real horse-trading to secure influence in the next government.

Confusion reigns over which way the vote-rich region will vote in the 2022 General Election. Courtship has already begun.

Western’s three big shots — Amani leader Musalia Mudavadi, Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya — have declared interest in becoming president.

Western has been Opposition Chief Raila Odinga's political bastion in the last three past elections but Deputy President William Ruto has lately turned it into a hunting ground.

While maintaining he would run for the top job. Oparanya told the Star the BBI process remains critical in defining the direction the community will take in 2022.

“We must fix these BbI issues first. As soon as BBI sets a clear path for the expansion of the Executive, we will get direction. A concrete decision will come after the BBI is through.” Another round of national participation is expected on a stripped-down version so the public can decide on essentials.

 Ruto is trying to wrest the region’s votes not only from the three but also from ODM leader Raila Odinga.

The Opposition chief once enjoyed almost fanatic following in 2007 and, 2013,

However, Jubilee made inroads in 2017, winning more MPs and MCAs — due to the merger of Western parties like UDF and New Ford Kenya.

Raila’s influence in the region is teetering.

The DP has lined up in the region every weekend,  some being impromptu stops in major towns.

Ostensibly because of his role as AU Infrastructure envoy, Raila has slowed his visits to Western — the last being a low- key visit at Cotu boss Francis Atwoli’s home during Christmas.

Ruto knows that a solid Luhya vote can propel a candidate past the 50 per cent plus one threshold for a presidential win.

Past elections have shown that the vote’s value largely depends on which candidate the Bukusu and Maragoli support.

In 2002, the region overwhelmingly voted for President Mwai Kibaki under the stewardship of the Vice President Kijana Wamamlwa.

Coming at the height of the clamour to end President Daniel Moi’s 24-year rule, the Bukusu and Maragoli pooled their votes. 

This factor played against Amani leader Musalia Mudavadi in 2013 when Raila garnered 755,525 votes in his backyard. The Amani leader, then in UDF,  got a paltry 353,864 votes.

In the nullified 2017 poll results, Raila beat President Uhuru Kenyatta having garnered 1.2 million votes against the President’s 241,000 in the four counties.

The saying goes that "if you want to know what’s important for someone, see where they spend most of their time."

Observers say the region’s vote is crucial for Ruto to reach the 50 per cent plus 1 threshold, especially with the mixed signals coming from the Coast, Eastern, and Mount Kenya.

The DP has injected the fiery Boni Khalwale (former Kakamega Senator) into his campaigns to bolster efforts by Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali.

Washiali is Ruto's face in Western, used to woo more MPs and MCAs to the DP's camp, including from Mudavadi’s party.

He says the confusion will turn to order "once Musalia wakes up and saves Western from the cold it has been in for years since the demise of Kijana Wamalwa’s (brother of Eugene).

“We are looking for a formula that will ensure we are in the next government. There is very little we can do without him,” Washiali said.

He holds that the Amani party leader is still young, “considering that 75-year-olds are seeking the presidency.”

“Musalia should see the bigger picture that affects Western. He has the opportunity of running later. If he feels he has not done enough to warrant a national vote, then we need to work with Ruto who has done the proper groundwork for 2022.

“The other route of Tinga (Raila) will not work because he was not even a running mate in the last election. If he supports the DP, we will push Ruto to make him running mate, unlike in Nasa where he was put on the sidelines as a cheerleader,” the MP said.

However, Ben Ombima,  a key Raila fixer in the region, holds that the forays will not bear any fruit as it is largely centred on cash handouts.

"Giving people money does not mean that people will be loyal and vote for you. Ruto doesn't want to learn and just like Kibera, people will eat the money and remind him of the issues we have with him when the time comes," the politician said.

He says people are getting tired of Mudavadi and Wetang'ula — for lack of seriousness — and are likely to lean towards Oparanya. 

"The Kakamega governor's star has risen because people have seen what he has done for the past seven years. Musalia and Wetang'ula think they can control the vote but we know they are in Tangatanga which most residents have issues with."

But Khalwale exuded the confidence that the three big shots are no threat to Ruto at all.

“I have assessed the Luhya presidential wannabes and none of them can persuade Kenyans to make them a president.

“Even as we speak, none of them has left the starting line. They are hoping that they will make a dash.

“A presidential campaign is not a sprint. It is a marathon…you need to start early, plan and build alliances, which none of them has done,” he said.

Khalwale says that since he left Nasa, he has managed to sway 60 per cent of the regions’ voters to back Ruto

“I dare any naysayers to do an opinion poll on Ruto's popularity in Western today. He is comfortably above 60 per cent. We hope to get to 70 per cent by the end of this year.”

The ex-lawmaker attributed Wamalwa-Kibaki’s 2002 sweeping win to the early campaigns the late VP had initiated in the region.

Khalwale observed that Luhyas are not good at surprises, hence the loss Musalia suffered when he stood against Raila in the 2013 election.

The former lawmaker gave an analogy of how a late bid cost Wamalwa the 1997 elections against Moi adding that their early bid to popularise Ford Kenya bore fruits.

“In 2013 when we were facing the change over from one system to another, I made up my mind late and that is why we did not get a good impact with UDF,” he told the Star.

Political analysts Edward Kisiangani and Prof Olang Sana of Maseno University all agree that the community’s failure to have a united approach to elections is its greatest undoing.

Kisiangani argues that the region’s political future or having a voice at the top echelons of government will depend on the alliances it builds.

He says that unless Musalia, Oparanya, and Wetang’ula agree on a formula that would see them work together, people will stream to the region to get pieces of the vote.

The Kenyatta University don says that a candidate backed by Vihiga and Bungoma has a higher chance of carrying the flag than others who do not.

In this, he says Musalia stands to reap big should he sustain his association with Devolution Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa.

“Once the Bukusu community,  the largest, and Vihiga get together, they are likely to help a candidate.”

“If they (Bukusu and Maragoli) get into one basket, there are more chances the first priority would go to Musalia because he is their own.”

Kisiangani adds that if Mudavadi decides to join an alliance competing with Ruto, the DP is likely to carry the day “since Raila has slowly, without knowing, lost that vote".

He attributes the ODM leader’s loss to the sacking of Richard Echesa as Sports Cabinet Secretary and removal of Wetang’ula from the Senate minority leadership.

“Even if it was not Raila’s intent to have the seats go to Nyanza, the thinking on the ground is that he took away the positions from Western,” Kisiangani said.

Prof Olang said, “To end the confusion, Western Kenya must make a decision on whether to follow Ruto or Raila.”

“They should have a candidate and decide whether to merge with the Ruto wing or Raila wing other than sitting on the fence.”

He concludes that failure to do so, the region risks being a swing vote. “They will not have a voice if they don’t get the two most important positions. The region should now act like this is their time to take it.”