Is Big Four a myth or reality?

During Jamhuri Day celebrations in 2017, President Uhuru Kenyatta rolled out an accelerated five-year development plan christened the Big Four agenda.

The President, in what would anchor his legacy, unveiled the plan pillared on food security, manufacturing, universal health coverage, and affordable housing.

He promised to give it all his time, energy, and resources bestowed on his administration to create one million jobs and improve Kenyans’ lives in the long run.

“Jobs will transform the lives of our people from that of hardship and want, to new lives of greater comfort and well-being,” the president said.

This was met with cheers of hopeful Kenyans who gathered at the Moi International Sports Centre Kasarani for the Jamhuri Day celebrations.

The magic was to drive activities towards the growth of the blue economy, agro-processing, as well as develop industries, starting with leather and textile.

The President projected that by the end of his term, the manufacturing sector would contribute 15 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product.

Although the President on Thursday said there has been progress in achieving the four pillars, the reality on the ground reveals that it is not material.

Manufacturing is yet to pick up amid reports of job losses as companies struggle to remain afloat – most going for wage or labour cuts.

Uhuru also made a promise to guarantee Kenyans 100 per cent access to healthcare and that no person would lack food.

The specifics were that the cost of food would go down by 47 per cent and that 500,000 affordable housing units would be made available to Kenyans.

The agriculture sector alone was to create 600,000 jobs and increase its contribution to GDP to 48 per cent from the current 38 per cent.

Galana Kulalu farm, which was to be the pedestal for the food security agenda, collapsed. The National Irrigation Board has put various crops on small portions of the vast land.

As this happens, agricultural industries — tea, sugar, coffee, and now maize — face competition with uncontrolled imports, stifling farmers’ earnings.

Kenya still suffers excruciating food shortages, effects that are commonplace with the perennial droughts.

Big Four also envisioned an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from $672 million (Sh68.1 billion) to $3.8 billion (Sh385.3 billion).

Uhuru further promised to reduce malnutrition in children by 27 per cent and cut health spending from an individuals’ pocket by 54 per cent.

The Head of State also pledged to cut the cost of constructing houses by 30 per cent, increase homeownership by 50 per cent and put up half a million houses.

With a Sh6 trillion debt and an unstable revenue performance, the mega plan’s funding needs are hampered.

MPs recently denied the administration cash to build an industrial park in Naivasha, roads to food production sites, and set conditions for UHC funding.

The housing agenda is proving impractical to achieve within the two years left before Uhuru exits or is swept in the electioneering storm.

On in his Jamhuri Day speechWednesday, Uhuru acknowledged the pillar has faced challenges and directed that the housing levy be made voluntary.

HOUSE LEVY ABOUTURN

"You all know, the implementation of the Housing Fund Levy as a mandatory contribution, for both employees and employers, has at every turn, been fraught with an avalanche of legal hurdles and obstacles. But we need to soldier the nobility of this programme."

A court blocked the government from taxing employers and workers to raise monies to fund the venture. The 1.5 per cent housing tax was to take effect in May.

Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria once poked holes on the practicability of the Jubilee’s flagship project.

The lawmaker, then 42 months to election, said it would mean building 397 houses per day – which is about 16 houses per hour.

Housing expert Mwenda Thuranira says the plan is ambitious but can be implemented without much effort.

“An affordable long-term mortgage is a solution,” he told the Star on the phone, adding that the idea of the mortgage refinancing company should be made to work.

Thuranira says the government needs to focus on the money more than take the arduous brick and mortar task.

“In Kenya, the only thing we are lacking is a good financing model for mortgages. People can build…ask developers in the real estate…we can develop even more than any other government,” he said.

“The government can help people own homes by giving people mortgages say for six or five per cent or even make it long term on solid security…if I can get a mortgage of 25 or 30 years and it slightly 30 per cent above my rent, then I will be a comfortable buyer,” Thuranira added.

The government says it is confident the venture would succeed, citing a deal for some 100,000 units in a project by the United Nations Office for Project Services.

HEALTH PILLAR

On health, Parliament recently sent a signal to the Ministry of Health that it will be keener with funding for the Universal Health Coverage programme.

The Budget and Appropriations Committee posits that it had difficulties approving funds for the project piloted in Kisumu, Machakos, Isiolo, and Nyeri.

This was in the wake of the ministry failing to submit a summative report on the progress of the UHC rollout.

“This report has not been provided yet the resources towards UHC programme have substantially increased,” Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’ wa said in the BAC report.

“Since we seem to be growing into a welfare state where services are becoming free for citizens, we need to ask whether we have resources to sustain the programme.”

Indeed, observers say there is very little to be filled from the ambitious plan that was to incorporate NHIF cover for students.

World-renowned health research unit Kemri-Wellcome Trust in a May survey concluded that the country has a long way to achieve 100 per cent health coverage.

It says this will not be possible if the government continues to consistently underfund the health sector.

The team observed that the country’s health system is heavily reliant on donor funds and out of pocket payments.

“Kenya’s reliance on voluntary payments to the NHIF as a pathway to UHC is contributing to the country’s slow UHC progress. The overall structure of health financing contributions in Kenya has been shown to be regressive,” the report reads in part.

"To-date, the programme has witnessed enhanced access to essential health services, with an average of39 per cent reported in the pilot counties," Uhuru said in vouching for the roll-out of the health plan to cover all counties.

Uhuru’s administration, over time, says it will consider any development by the participating agencies as part of the Big Four development blueprint.

But the Parliamentary Budget Office says there is a need for a collaboration framework between national and county governments for maximum effect.

In its analysis of the 2019-20 budget, the House advisory team says how well the development plan performs or its impact will depend on how the 30 projects in the current budget are implemented.

Big Four drivers have a budget vote of Sh76.7 billion for enablers and Sh374.1 billion for development projects.

“It is worth noting that the realisation of the Big Four Agenda is in two years and key sectors such as Agriculture and Manufacturing sector continue to underperform,” the PBO warned.