The electoral agency could be forced to scrap up to 40 constituencies for falling below the constitutional population threshold.
The 2019 census results showed that the 40 electoral units have less than 114,889 people which, according to a report made by Andrew Ligale-chaired Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission, should be scrapped.
In 2009, some 27 constituencies were allowed to exist despite not meeting their various population quotas of 93,196.6 and 79,882.8.
With the Wafula Chebukati-led Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission planning to hold the boundaries review before the end of 2022, the revelations are likely to trigger a political storm.
Article 89 of the Constitution on the delimitation of electoral units notes ‘…boundaries of each constituency shall be such that the number of inhabitants in the constituency is, as nearly as possible, equal to the population quota’.
The census figures showed that Kenya's population is 47.6 million and will inform whether IEBC renames, merges or scraps some constituencies.
The Constitution says that IEBC shall review the names and boundaries of constituencies at intervals of not less than eight, and not more than 12 years.
The last review was done in 2009 but the government has not set budgetary allocations in this financial year for the exercise. Therefore, the earliest a review can be done is the next financial year.
However, any review shall be completed at least 12 months before a general election of members of Parliament, hence it must be done by August 2021.
According to the law, the IEBC's review on the boundaries will only affect some of the 27 constituencies that were protected in 2009 and which have now failed to meet the population threshold.
“If a general election is to be held within twelve months after the completion of a review by the Commission, the new boundaries shall not take effect for purposes of that election,” reads Article 89(4) of the Constitution.
This could offer politicians in the fresh constituencies affected by the low population quota a ray of hope-but only if the IEBC delays the boundaries review up to 12 months to the polls.
An analysis of the census results released on Monday depicts a bleak future for the electoral units which have failed to meet the population quota despite aggressive mobilisation campaigns during census enumeration in August.
During the census period, politicians rallied people to return to their home constituencies to be counted to save those with low populations from the axe.
MPs have protested any move by the commission to scrap their electoral units despite the 2009 privileged constituencies failing to meet the threshold again.
According to the new population quota calculated by dividing the total national population of 47.6 million people by the 290 constituencies, each constituency should have at least 164,137 people.
Article 89, however, allows for a constituency to be less or more than the quota on special occasions based on geographical features and urban centres; community of interest, historical, economic and cultural ties; and means of communication.
The Constitution provides that the number of inhabitants of a constituency or ward may be greater or lesser than the population quota by a margin of not more than 40 per cent for cities and sparsely populated areas and 30 per cent for other areas.
This means that with the population quota at 164,137, the lowest populated constituency would be allowed to have at least 114,889 while the highest populated will have 213,378 people.
However, Mvita constituency in Mombasa county grew its population from 75,153 people to 154,171 to escape action in the impending IEBC boundaries review.
Yesterday Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir was elated that his constituency was among those which would now continue existing after registering a high population growth.
“We are yet to consult and agree on a common statement as coast leaders but I can comfortably say we are happy because all Mombasa constituencies are safe,” the MP said.
In Taita Taveta county, Voi constituency which was also in the red failed to boost its numbers to survive despite growing its population from 86,801 to 111,831 people.
Some of the other constituencies whose boundaries would be altered to merge them with other electoral units include Lamu East (22,258), Mwatate (81,659), Kuria East (96,872), Budalangi (85,977), Mt Elgon (78,873) and Laikipia North(36,184).
Others are Tiaty (73,424), Keiyo North (99,176), Marakwet East (97,041), Samburu North (67,391), Samburu East (77,994), Pokot South (80,661), Turakana North (65,218), Loima (107,795), Kangema(80,447), Tetu (80,453), Mathioya (92,814), Mkurwe-in (89,137), Kang'undo (97,917), Mwingi East (85,139), Eldas (88,509), Lafey (83,457) and Kathiani (111,890).
Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara said constituencies with more population should be allocated more CDF resources to ensure fairness.
She said some constituencies had a population of fewer than 50,000 residents making it difficult to match in terms of development.
“We get a uniformed allocation in CDF and when you try to disburse the monies into specific projects you find it’s not enough to cover the entire constituency,” she said.
Turkana West MP Daniel Epuyo dismissed the census results saying a majority of his people were not enumerated, despite meeting the quota.
"I had raised the issue with the Turkana county commissioner that more enumerators were needed to count the many pastoralists who were migrating to different areas, but no action was taken," Eupyo said.
The upcoming boundaries review would be the next battlefront between the IEBC and politicians who have pledged to fight for the protection of the constituencies.
