Deputy President William Ruto faces tough choices for a running mate amid pressure from his allies to seal a political pact with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi.
DP Ruto, who has already heightened his 2022 presidential campaigns across the country, is said to be exploring options outside Mt Kenya for his deputy as the region sends mixed signals.
Initially, it was almost automatic that the DP would settle on President Uhuru Kenyatta's turf for a running mate but the changing political dynamics in the country could have pushed him to seek alternatives.
The March 9, 2018 handshake between Uhuru and ODM leader Raila Odinga, in particular, could have sent the DP into a running mate hunt frenzy to counter the growing influence of the ex-premier.
Raila now enjoys massive support within Uhuru's Central Kenya backyard, a fast-changing political reality.
He now has to find ways to appease the region and still select a formidable candidate who can guarantee victory in 2022.
Signaling a shift in his search, Ruto last weekend invited Mudavadi to cross over to his camp and forge a pre-2022 election deal.
However, Mudavadi quickly dismissed the DP's proposal, saying he was not ready to join a man who is part of the economic blunders roiling the country today.
DP's close allies and political analysts opine that a Ruto-Mudavadi 2022 presidential ticket would be an unbeatable political juggernaut.
"A Ruto-Mudavadi ticket would be formidable,” Kimilili MP Didmas Barasa said.
Barasa argued that Jubilee leaders from Western Kenya would pave the way for Mudavadi to negotiate with Ruto on behalf of the region given his seniority.
“We have no problem with Mudavadi. We will actually allow him to negotiate on our behalf with Ruto, if he agrees to join the Deputy President. He is our senior and we need to allow him to serve this county and then exit,” he said.
REVAMPING PENTAGON
Barasa said Ruto was quietly working on a reincarnation of the famous pentagon, a formidable political machine that nearly vanquished President Mwai Kibaki in 2007.
“We will have something similar to the pentagon so that the whole of Kenya is represented on the table where power is shared.”
The 2007 Pentagon, ODM’s top advisory organ then, was arguably Kenya’s most resolute party arrangement that ran on a well-oiled political machine that nearly toppled Kibaki's PNU.
Its members were Raila, Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Tourism CS Najib Balala, former Cabinet minister Joe Nyaga and Ruto.
A pentagon philosophy would create a national face and buttress the DP's presidential bid, which is already facing a threat from a possible Uhuru-Raila alliance.
KIELEWEKE VS TANGATANGA RIVALRY EFFECT
Uhuru's backyard that voted for Jubilee almost to a man in the 2013 and 2017 general elections is no longer a dependable bastion for Ruto following an implosion triggered by the Kieleweke and Tangatanga factions in the ruling party.
That (Ruto-Mudavadi ticket) would be a serious ticket formidable enough to take over the leadership of this country. We want to welcome Mudavadi with our open hearts.
While Kieleweke backs the handshake and campaigns against Ruto's 2022 bid, the Tangatanga is pro-DP, triggering suspicions and tension within the ruling party. Some of their political events have turned violent in Nyeri and Murang'a.
Speaking in Mudavadi's Sabatia constituency last Saturday, Ruto pleaded Mudavadi to join him in forming a political alliance to push for the presidency in 2022.
"I am for the decision that we unite for development and to form the government. You the people of Sabatia should pray for me," he said.
But Mudavadi rebuffed the overtures.
“He, Ruto, has asked me to support his 2022 presidential bid yet he is the same man who is in the forefront in subjecting our country to debts. Now he is seeking my support, which implies that I should be part of this problem. That is not possible,” Mudavadi said on Sunday.
But National Assembly Majority Whip Benjamin Washiali told the Star that the decision by Ruto to reach out to Mudavadi was a “smart political approach.”
“By extending his hand to Mudavadi, the DP is simply telling him that we can work together despite our past,” he said.
Soy MP Caleb Kositany, who also chairs the Rift Valley Parliamentary caucus, told the Star that “any additional political force to the DP's camp would be a game-changer.”
NUMBERS
The lawmaker said Ruto's team is working on a wider political plan to bring on board as many politicians as possible to form the next government.
“Politics is about numbers. We expected Mudavadi to cross over to our side with the numbers he has to strengthen our team,” Kositany told the Star in a phone interview.
When asked about what was the offer on the table for Mudavadi, Kositany said details about the sharing of power would be revealed at a later date.
“What we want is first to have a working arrangement with Mudavadi. As to who will deputise the other is something that we will discuss,” he said.
Given that the Constitution bars a Deputy President from holding office for more than two terms, Mudavadi might play second fiddle to Ruto, if the push for them to strike a deal succeeds.
Political analyst and university lecturer Macharia Munene told the Star that a Mudavadi-Ruto ticket would shake the country's political landscape.
"It would be a formidable ticket for sure. It would actually be a very strong ticket,” Prof Munene, who teaches History and International Relations at USIU, said.
He noted that Ruto and Mudavadi have no deep-seated rivalry that would work against them but warned that such a ticket would require other regional leaders on board to reflect the face of Kenya.
Munene said, while Mudavadi has been quietly crisscrossing the country in his 2022 campaigns, he has not been personally attacking Ruto directly.
“Political players who have no problem with Ruto would have no problem with Mudavadi. They can team up to form a second tier to take on Raila,” he said.
“Ruto and Mudavadi have something in common. They are considered as underdogs with Raila taking over a big junk of the running of government. That he is not elected by anyone and is making some decisions in government is not lost on anyone.”
