I think ODM learnt lessons from previous nominations. They have experience on handling nominations. They were careful especially after being beaten in the previous elections.
But again, it was just one nomination, they just concentrated all their effects there to get it right. It is not like it was being done all over. Basically, I think they must have learnt their lessons.
Remember, there is a real threat on them in this by-election. It is no longer guaranteed that they will automatically retain the seat. So they don’t want to lose the seat because of the nominations. They would rather lose it because of other factors that they cannot avoid but not because of their own making. The matrix is very complicated there and if they would have bungled the nominations, then you give the opponent a real chance of beating you.
Because the nominations were relatively fair, devoid of the usual drama, there will be less complaints. People might complain, they might even move to other parties and support other candidate as usual, but they are less dramatic and therefore, there is no much impact as it would have had if the elections had been bungled.
So, ODM has started off from a good point but then they must also reckon with the other factors like facing Deputy President William Ruto in an election. Facing Ruto in an election is not easy. If it is true that McDonald Mariga – Jubilee Party candidate is a Ruto man, then they must know that restricting or containing Ruto is not a walk in the park. It is not a small matter. So there are challenges there.
Secondly, money will be an important factor especially if the turnout will be low – as usually is the case with a by-election. Money plays a crucial role.
Between the three main contestants, Mariga has his own money, and if it is true Ruto is behind him, Ruto is not like Raila for Imran Okoth and Mudavadi for Owalo. These two people are backed by people who are not known for spending. And then the hustler narrative. This will really augur well with the people of Kibra.
The University don spoke to the Star
