At some time, it was assumed that Raila Odinga did not have to sweat to win Kibra because that has been his backyard.
But he is now under threat. He has actually been under threat for some time. Raila’s support has been eroding. The fanaticism is no longer there.
Though he still has some clout, it is not what it used to be. These others [parties] are seeing an opportunity either to increase their representation in Parliament or just to give Raila a run for his money. This is especially so for William Ruto.
The two have been going after each other since 2017 and after Raila decided to join President Uhuru Kenyatta in March 2018.
Raila has been doing a very good job of attacking Ruto and his troops. Ruto has similarly been scathing in his attack of the former Prime Minister.
So the Kibra by-election is an opportunity for them to go after each other's neck. It will certainly be a Raila-Ruto confrontation.
But the main thing is not whether Raila's person wins as is likely to be the case. It is how big the margin will be. If the margin is not big, then Raila is in trouble.
If Raila's person wins, it cannot be a small win; it has to be by a big margin for him to show that he still has the clout in the constituency. The by-election is for Raila to hold his backyard.
Then there is Musalia Mudavadi. Musalia’s agenda is different. He wants to win yes, but if his person loses, he wants to prove a point. If the person wins with a small margin then he will also have proved a point.
Right now it is a contest between Raila and Ruto, so, if Mudavadi’s person wins by a small margin, then he will have proved a point. If he wins, then definitely he boosts the ANC leader's 2022 mileage.
However, all said, the person in danger is Raila because he is the one in his backyard. Musalia and Ruto are there to prove a point.
The University don spoke to the Star on the phone
