To begin with, if Musalia Mudavadi is pitted against Ruto at the presidential ballot, then for him to beat the deputy president, he would have to be in an arrangement in which he is supported by President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga.
In that scenario, it will not be Musalia running, but Ruto running against a united team whose flag-bearer would be Musalia.
To say whether Musalia might beat Ruto or not, we must begin by saying it must not be him running, but a team. That way, Musalia stands a very good chance if he gets Uhuru and Raila's backing.
But again, you must know that Ruto is not a pushover. Ruto is a very tough man. So even if somebody is backed and does not have fire in the arsenal. If he cannot fight like a man with all the backing, Ruto can run over him.
You see, a lot of these things will depend on how Uhuru and Raila navigate. If Uhuru and Raila work together to the last day and support somebody that person will be a very formidable candidate whether it is Musalia or Kalonzo Musyoka.
But you see, even if you are being supported, you must bring something to the table. You must bring a certain personality and because you are going against Ruto, you must be a fighter.
What we are saying is, if the Kikuyu decide to go with Uhuru , then we are looking at their votes, the Luyha and the Luo votes. Those are so many votes.
We must also ask ourselves if President Uhuru has the political capacity to rally the whole of his Kikuyu nation behind Musalia. There are challenges as well.
How sure would one be that Raila will tell Luos to vote for someone else? Those are some of the challenges confronting the country. There is nothing easy for anybody.
If Raila and Ruto are in the ballot then that means Musalia will not go far. He will be a nonstarter, will be a donkey and there will be two horses. That way, Ruto will easily beat all of them pants down. Ruto is a strong opponent .
