The troubled ruling Jubilee Party is still twice as popular as the Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement, despite acrimonious differences threatening to tear it apart.
A new poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting suggests that most Kenyans surveyed — 40 per cent — feel closest to Jubilee. It is wracked by divisions, infighting, backstabbing, succession politics and even an assassination claim.
ODM comes a distant second at 21 per cent, in what may leave Raila and his political think tanks pondering their next move.
ODM has begun an aggressive revamping bid and on Friday announced plans to overhaul its national elections board together with its secretariat to regain credibility and reposition the party for the 2022 polls.
The Orange party has been accused of disenfranchising its supporters through fraudulent party nominations.
The Infotrak poll suggests, however, that apart from ODM and Jubilee, the other parties will have to pull a political miracle to have an impact in 2022.
The random sampling of 1,048 adults was conducted between June 22 and 23. The margin of error was three per cent.
Only three per cent of those surveyed said they felt closest to Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Party.
The outlook is also gloomy for Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC and Moses Wetangula’s Ford Kenya.
The poll said that only one per cent of respondents said they felt closest to ANC and one per cent to Ford Kenya.
However, 28 per cent of Kenyans said they did not feel close to any political party.
The poll suggests that Jubilee is more popular in five of the old provinces, including Western Kenya.
These are Northeastern (42 per cent), Eastern (39 per cent), Central (61 per cent), Rift Valley (57 per cent) and Western (27 per cent).
The poll suggests that ODM and Jubilee are tied at 33 per cent support at the Coast.
Jubilee has 3 per cent support in Nairobi and 24 per cent in Nyanza.
Western and Coast have been Raila’s political bastions since 2007.
However, the new poll shows that only 25 per cent of respondents said they felt closest to ODM in Western.
ODM, however, has more supporters in Nairobi and Nyanza at 27 per cent and 47 per cent, respectively, the poll indicates.
The Orange party support in other areas are Northeastern ( 22 per cent), Eastern (10 per cent), Central (7 per cent), Rift Valley (12 per cent).
According to the survey, Jubilee is also more popular in Eastern than Kalonzo’s Wiper.
Only 14 per cent of respondents in Eastern said they feel closest to Wiper.
Wiper has two per cent support in Nyanza, one per cent at the Coast, four per cent in Northeastern.
In the rest of the country, it has zero support.
In yet another blow to Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula, only six per cent of respondents in Western said they felt closest to ANC and Ford Kenya in Western, their home ground.
The two have announced they will run for President in 2022 and are determined to consolidate the Luhya vote bloc.
