Referendum puts Uhuru, Raila and Ruto at crossroads

Deputy President William Ruto with ODM leader Raila Odinga at musician Joseph Kamaru's burial in Murang'a on Thursday, October 11, 2018. /COURTESY
Deputy President William Ruto with ODM leader Raila Odinga at musician Joseph Kamaru's burial in Murang'a on Thursday, October 11, 2018. /COURTESY

President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto have to come alive to the fact that various key political leaders have pronounced themselves in favour of the Constitutional review.

Secondly, IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati said they are ready and prepared to handle a referendum.

Citizens also to whom power belongs have spoken and pronounced themselves directly or through their leaders that they want a referendum. We know very well that there are only two ways a referendum can occur through a parliamentary or popular initiative.

Now if you listen to Ruto he has been blowing hot and cold when it comes to the referendum debate.

Uhuru on the other hand is focussed on his legacy and seems not to be fully in favour of the referendum.

He knows quite well that a referendum push will jeopardise his Big Four agenda on which he pegs his legacy.

If Uhuru and Ruto are at all in favour of a referendum then they will want it very late in the day not mid-term or this early. It will be a stroke of genius if they think and work with other players and mechanism for a referendum but not now.

If they speak like that then people will want to speak about the referendum but not as something urgent but which can come late in the day either in 2020 or 2021.

Their half-hearted approach on the referendum leaves Raila in a political limbo. He knows that he is able to make a forceful drive or push for a referendum but can only successfully do so if he is not cooperating with the government.

The building bridges initiatives which he is in favour of compels him to work with the government. He is in a catch 22 situation he wants a referendum but he does now want to be seen as killing the handshake.

For Ruto he knows that the manner in which executive is structured today deeply favours his 2022 bid for the presidency.

They are all standing in the middle of a storm.

The political analyst spoke to the Star.

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