There are a few things at play here. The first is that both factions fighting in Jubilee, if they exist, have realised that Jubilee is an
important party to keep. Under normal circumstances, people would step out and form their own little outfits. Now the fact that there is fighting for the control of the party is sign that the Jubilee party is a vehicle they need for 2022.
Come 2022, the political parties that will make a mark are those that can step out of their tribal cocoons. For instance in 2017, the reason Jubilee won is because they were able to get a little outside of their strongholds. That is going to be exactly the same scenario in 2022. That means you need a party that is long-standing and already has some formal support and recognition to carry on your agendas.
It will be foolhardy to imagine one can start a party from scratch and hope to make an impact. That will not work.
Is there an implosion in Jubilee? I don’t quite think so. The reality is that there is going to be a fight for the heart and soul of Jubilee and the fight will be about who is going run the party because it is going to be the party standing after 2022. By contrast, Nasa is constituted of small parties that cannot make headway beyond their villages.
Wiper, Ford Kenya and ANC all lost ground in their strongholds to ODM and Jubilee. So the writing is on the wall. If you run a tribal outfit party, it is not going to make an impact in 2022.
In both ODM and Jubilee it’s necessary to keep the party together, not because the leaders are nationalists but because the population has realised the importance of voting outside their tribal cocoons. If you’re going to run it is not enough to say I have this deputy from this tribe, you have to penetrate places that have been traditionally your opponent’s strongholds.
The political analyst spoke to the Star