Acting
director of meteorological services Edward Muriuki.
Met department reported that November, usually the peak month for the October-December rains, was unusually dry across the country.
Acting director of meteorological services Edward Muriuki also said the December-February 2026 period will be largely hot and dry.
He said any remaining rains this season will stop between this week and the fourth week of December.
“La Niña is currently underway, with cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures across the central and east-central Pacific and matching atmospheric patterns over the tropical Pacific. These conditions are expected to continue through December 2025 to February 2026,” Muriuki said.
He added: “La Niña typically brings drier-than-normal conditions to parts of East Africa, though its impact can vary.”
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a see-saw of warm and cool waters in the Indian Ocean that shifts where rain forms. When the warm water is near East Africa (Positive IOD) it brings more rain, and when it shifts toward Indonesia (negative IOD) it brings drought in Kenya.
“The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is still active, but it has been getting weaker over the past three weeks. For the week ending 23 November, the IOD index was −0.60 °C. Climate models indicate that the IOD is likely to return to neutral conditions in December,” Muriuki explained.
Some isolated episodes of rainfall may occur in December, but these will not significantly change the overall picture of a failed season. Even where rain is expected, the projections still show it falling far below normal averages.
“Most parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average (generally depressed) rainfall, while parts of the northeastern region are likely to receive below-average (highly depressed) rainfall,” Muriuki said.
Localised flooding remains a possibility in areas that may experience heavy episodes, especially in poorly drained towns and along rivers. However, the wider pattern is dry.
Muriuki said temperatures are projected to rise sharply across the country. “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over the whole country, with prolonged periods of heat likely to intensify daytime temperatures, elevate nighttime minimums, and contribute to generally hotter-than-usual conditions throughout the month,” he said. The trend will extend into early 2026.
He noted that most parts of the country will be generally sunny and dry in January and February. “However, some areas, particularly the Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi), the South Rift Valley, southeastern lowlands, and the coastal region, may experience a few rainy days in January and February.”
The department said this caps one of the driest short rains seasons in recent years. November is typically the peak of the OND rains, yet most parts of Kenya received less than 40 per cent of their long-term means for the month.
“With the exception of Garissa and Makindu, which registered near-normal rainfall totals, all other observation stations reported deficits ranging from below-average to severely depressed levels, highlighting the pronounced rainfall suppression across the country,” Muriuki said.
The combination of high temperatures and depressed rainfall poses risks to food security, water availability, livestock, and public health. The department warned that in arid and semi-arid regions, the anticipated near-to below-average rainfall is likely to reduce soil moisture, affecting crop growth and pasture availability.
“The near-to below-normal rainfall, coupled with poor spatial and temporal distribution, may negatively affect crop production, over most parts, especially over parts of the Central and Eastern sectors of the country, including the Coastal region. In the ASAL areas of the Northeast and parts of the Southeast, the limited rainfall may hinder pasture regeneration, potentially leading to reduced livestock production,” Muriuki said.
He further cautioned that reduced rainfall may lead to lower water levels in rivers, dams, and reservoirs nationwide, while warmer-than-average conditions may increase the risk of heat stress and vector-borne diseases.
