Kenya monitors cholera, Rift Valley Fever ahead of El Nino rains

At the end of May 2018, villagers in parts of the northeastern reported hundreds of livestock stopped feeding and grew weak. Afterwards, there were mass abortions and deaths of young livestock.

About 30 villagers who slaughtered the dying animals or handled the meat, fell sick and eight died.

Diagnosis? Rift Valley Fever. Health and veterinary authorities are now monitoring RVF, cholera and malaria among other diseases ahead of the El nino rains.

The Kenya Meteorological Department reported that some regions of the North Eastern region of Kenya had received three times the normal rainfall between March and May 2018.

For RVF, flooding provides ideal conditions for mosquito multiplication and, consequently, disease emergence.

Last week, KMD said if El Nino causes heavy rains this year, those effects will most be significant from October.

“The public is advised to stay informed by updating themselves with weather reports issued by KMD, and seeking expert advice in relevant sectors to minimise adverse weather impacts,” said KMD director Dr David Gikungu.

Health CS Susan Nakhumicha said they are keen to distribute 10 million treated mosquito nets before the October rains.

She spoke last week after inaugurating the board of the Kenya Medical Supplies Authority.

“We want to achieve this before the end of this year so that Kenyans who needs to benefit should not miss it,” she said,  “Remember, it's a rainy season, we don't want Kenyans to suffer.”

In Kenya, RVF is a priority zoonotic disease because of the high morbidity and mortality. The last major outbreak in 2006–2007 resulted in approximately 340 human cases, 90 human deaths, and economic losses of more than US$32 million in direct livestock mortality and indirect losses, partly due to impediments to trade, according to studies.

Data from the 2016 El Nino around the world showed cholera outbreaks were elevated in eastern Africa, and dengue was indeed more frequent than usual in Brazil and Southeast Asia.

Outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, and hepatitis A usually come when floods affect water availability, quality and sanitation.

Kenya managed to avert an RVF outbreak during the 2016 El Nino through a mass vaccination programme for domestic livestock.

Livestock can pass the disease to certain mosquito species and directly to humans through milk and blood.

There is currently no human vaccine to prevent RVF.

Model predictions and expert assessments globally indicate a moderate probability (60 per cent chance) for the onset of El Niño during May- July 2023.

This probability is expected to increase to 60-70 per cent during June-August and it is highly likely (with a chance of 70-80 per cent) in July-through October 2023.

El Niño conditions are expected to persist up to the October-December 2023 rainfall season and may extend to the November to January season.

Dr Gikungu said while El Nino can result in heavier-than-normal rainfall, this can vary significantly between events.

For instance, the 1987 October-December season was an El Niño event that did not result in heavy rainfall over the country, he said.

Additionally, in 2015, the El Niño index was higher than that of 1997 but the country did not experience as much rainfall as it did in 1997.

“The forecast for June to August 2023 will be issued at the end of May. The public is advised to stay informed by updating themselves with weather reports issued by KMD, and seeking expert advice in relevant sectors to minimise adverse weather impacts,” he said.

-Edited by SKanyara