Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka’s campaign theme song, ‘Buffalo Soldier’ has a metaphorical hue the choice of the Bob Marley lyric did not anticipate.
The song does not capture the ferocity of a buffalo that would cruise past the two horses in the presidential race. The two horses, and their proposed executive line-ups, relegate the reigning Kamba ‘kingpin’ to the rear guard.
If the former MP for Mwingi North decides to re-enlist in Raila Odinga’s team, Kalonzo would be chief Cabinet Secretary. The position is reserved for him. He would be number three in the Executive, after Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga and running-mate Martha Karua.
Karua outpaced Kalonzo, in the running mate contest, after ticking more eligibility boxes. These included gender correctness, strategic significance, fight against corruption, decisiveness, and reform credentials.
Strategic significance probably meant 40 percent of about 6 million votes from Karua’s genealogical backyard would be superior to a possible take of 88 per cent of 2 million votes from Kalonzo’s ethnic base.
Karua, it was supposed, would appeal to the women constituency. The decision is paying off: genderpreneurs have owned the choice of a woman running mate of a major presidential ticket.
The Boychild, Man Stevo, is left dangling on the horns of a dilemma. Being neither a woman nor from the ‘vote-rich’ Mt Kenya region have worked against the self-styled servant leader.
If the buffalo joins William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance, Kalonzo would occupy the fifth column. He would be four steps behind DP Ruto, running mate Rigathi Gachagua, proposed prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and House Speaker-designate Moses Wetang’ula.
Mudavadi and Wetang’ula abandoned Kalonzo in One Kenya Alliance when they fled to Ruto’s corner. Kalonzo was still contemplating running for president.
The Buffalo of Tseikuru is fighting for survival in a competition that long shaped up as a two-horse race. The two horses – Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga and UDA’s William Ruto – are cruising to the finish line. They are telling the buffalo, you can catch up with us when you decide to run.
Kalonzo occupies the no-man’s land between fear and hope. He fears imminent isolation during the President Uhuru Kenyatta succession and beyond.
Rejecting Azimio’s offer of chief Cabinet Secretary presents Charity Ngilu with an opportunity to succeed Kalonzo as Kamba queenpin. The Kitui county governor, a 1997 presidential candidate, is at the Azimio entrance, waiting for the signal to sit in for Kalonzo.
A Ngilu move would give former Kitui Senator David Musila a through pass in the Kitui governor contest. The eventuality would further isolate Kalonzo, while raising the Azimio presidential aspirant’s chances of winning during the first round on August 9.
Genderpreneurs would welcome Ngilu, another decisive woman, around power in Azimio. This would dash Kalonzo’s residual hope of the buffalo squeezing in between the two horses.
There is still hope of Kalonzo running for president, but he is sure to lose. The residual hope has a history. The man from Tseikuru village of Kitui ran for president in 2007. He finished third, behind Party of National Unity presidential candidate Mwai Kibaki, and ODM’s Raila Odinga.
Kalonzo enlisted with Mwai Kibaki who was claiming a controversial second term. He was appointed vice president, with Raila Odinga as prime minister during the 2008-13 grand coalition government.
The circumstances of President Uhuru Kenyatta Succession are different though: Seats around power have been assigned. Fear of political obscurity is more real for Kalonzo than the hope of brokering a presidential runoff. There may be no runoff.
For love of Kenya, and fear of oblivion, Kalonzo must decide to protect the bird in hand. He can wait to run for president when he becomes a horse.
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