• Earlier reports said the lake could dry up though many lakes in Rift Valley have flooded.
• Unep says climate change could raise its water levels, causing serious, recurrent flooding.
Image: ANDREW KASUKU
Lake Turkana is not at a risk of drying up as earlier suspected by expert researchers, a new study shows.
This is despite drought hitting the region.
It predicted a wetter, possibly dangerous future and said Kenya must get prepared.
Lake Turkana is the world's largest permanent desert lake and the world’s largest alkaline lake.
The report by United Nations Environmental Programme (Unep) said climate change could likely lead to heavier rains and flooding.
This could raise water levels in the lake itself and increase the likelihood of it bursting its banks and recurrent flooding.
The study urged Kenyan officials to prepare for a future in which once-rare floods, such as those in 2019 and 2020, are going to become regular occurrences.
“Many people think climate change is a problem of the future,” Unep deputy head for Africa Frank Turyatunga said.
“But as Lake Turkana shows, it is happening now and it’s already forcing people to adapt to new conditions.”
The Unep study predicts a far wetter future for the lake and possibly a more dangerous one for the millions of people who live near its shores.
Tito Ochieng, Turkana's director of water resources, said rising water levels have damaged pasture in the past two years.
"The rising water levels have led to destruction of property and forced people to flee their homes,” he said.
The report called for improved cooperation between nations and focus on adaptation measures, including agroforestry, reforestation and avoiding construction in areas at risk of flooding.
For a long time, Lake Turkana was shrinking and could disappear without strategic interventions, experts said.
As early as 2010, experts had predicted the dam along River Omo would reduce Lake Turkana’s inflow by roughly 50 per cent and reduce depth t about 10 metres.
Despite it being included in the Unesco list of endangered world heritage sites in June 2018, the basin countries of Kenya and Ethiopia are yet to agree on how best to combat the lake's problems.
Initiatives by the two countries have failed to improve the lake's condition.
The Gibe III hydro-electric power dam was constructed along River Omo, where Lake Turkana receives more than 80 per cent of its fresh water.
The World Heritage Centre Committee also recognised the dam had led to "an overall rapid decline in water levels."
Kenya has an agreement to buy hydro-power from Ethiopia, part of which comes from the disputed Gibe III dam, which might further delay a solution.
In the original agreement, Kenya was to buy 400MW from Ethiopia.
Lake Turkana is a major source of livelihood for surrounding villages and pastoral communities. It has a major cooling effect in the region.