• The county has eight constituencies with more than 450,000 registered voters.
• Regional balance, party politics and clan allegiance influence outcomes.
Already opinions are divided in Homa Bay on whether voters in 2022 should stick with a previous amorphous regional balance pre-election agreement.
Some claim it didn't exist but there's evidence that it did.
In that pre-election 'non-deal', influential politicians divided the county into three regions and the three top positions were shared among them.
They are Rachuonyo, Homa Bay and Suba.
Rachuonyo includes constituencies such as Karachuonyo (84,004 voters), Kasipul (57,344 voters) and Kabondo Kasipul (49,432 voters).
In Homa Bay region, the three constituencies are Ndhiwa (85,056 voters), Homa Bay Town (50,570 voters) and Rangwe (52,516 voters).
In Suba, they are Suba North (57,454 voters) and Suba South (46,499 voters).
REGIONAL BALANCE AND PACT
Former Senator Otieno Kajwang’ (Suba region) is said to have spearheaded the deal alongside Governor Cyprian Awiti (Rachuonyo), his deputy Hamilton Orata (Ndhiwa-Homa Bay) and Woman Representative Gladys Wanga (Rangwe-Homa Bay region).
Through that 2013 line up, the late Kajwang' and his team mounted a spirited campaign for the ODM party ticket against their rivals like Philip Okundi who aimed for governor, Hillary Alila (senator) and Roselyn Onyuka (woman representative).
Okundi, his running mate Erick Opiyo and Alila all come from Homa Bay region while Onyuka hails from Rachuonyo region.
Kajwang' and his team won with a landslide in the 2013 General Election on ODM tickets.
Under the so-called agreement, residents voted in current Senator Moses Kajwang’ after the death of his elder brother Gerald Otieno in 2015.
All the top three leaders in the county are serving their second term and Governor Cyprian Awiti is retiring.
Former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga also deployed the same strategy when he ran for Homa Bay governor on an independent ticket in 2017.
Magwanga who hails from Rachuonyo lined up Fred Rabong’o from Suba (for senator), Florence Juma from Homa Bay (for woman representative). Magwanga chose Joshua Orero from Ndhiwa constituency (Homa Bay region) as his running mate.
The former Kasipul MP and his team went independent after they lost to ODM candidates in the party primaries.
As political realignments take shape to succeed Governor Awiti, there are divided opinions among Homa Bay residents, some saying Rachuonyo should shelve its interest in fielding a gubernatorial candidate for 2022.
The residents argue that the Rachuonyo region should now support a gubernatorial candidate from another clan because their son has served twice in the lucrative position and his term is ending in 2022.
The split emerged after a group of Rachuonyo clan members led by spokesman Odoyo Owidi , who is chairman of the Lake Basin Development Authority, objected to not contesting.
Owidi says a person from their clan cannot be denied another opportunity to contest the governor's seat on the basis of an amorphous agreement.
He insists that Rachuonyo must field a gubernatorial candidate in 2022 because it is their democratic right.
“The Rachuonyo clan does not owe anybody a political debt in this county because we didn’t make any agreement to support a candidate from another clan after expiry of Awiti’s term,” Owidi says.
He argues that as members of the Rachuonyo clan, they remain silent on the county gubernatorial politics to give Awiti time to deliver on his agenda.
Owidi says that their silence should not be mistaken for weakness, noting that they will soon agree to support one candidate to ensure one of them wins.
Rachuonyo is a vote-rich region with 190, 780 voters, followed by Homa Bay with 186, 142 voters and Suba region with 103,953 voters.
The Rachuonyo clan has a tendency to support one of their own.
Owidi says a member from their clan should not be prevented from fielding a qualified candidate because Awiti had become governor.
He wants candidates to be chosen on the basis of their development track records.
“People who talk about the deal have failed to produce written evidence [of one]. I think there’s no such an agreement, it's political propaganda,” he adds.
But residents Mark Okang’o (from Rangwe, Homa Bay region) and Oloo Gor (Suba region) say it would be good for Rachuonyo to support a candidate outside their clan.
They say they have twice supported the candidacy Awiti and won.
“For the sake of unity and brotherhood, it will be prudent for Rachuonyo people to vote a governor candidate from either Suba or Homa Bay region. They should return the favour,” Okang’o says.
ODM Gor says, however, that a major factor in the choice of candidate will be the decision of Opposition leader Raila Odinga and his ODM party — in addition to an aspirant's popularity.
He argues that Homa Bay is one of the Raila and ODM’s strongholds and any candidate running on an ODM ticket would be halfway into office.
“The voting pattern in Homa Bay is uniform; they go for Raila and the ODM candidate. It happened in 2013 and 2017 when all ODM candidates won," Gor says.
The popularity of an aspirant would only be a plus during the party nomination, he says.
“A credible ODM nomination would automatically give the ticket to a popular candidate. This candidate will have a strong chance of becoming governor," Gof says.
Possible aspirants and their thoughts
So far, potential candidates for governor from Homa Bay region include Wanga, Orata, Isaiah Ogwe (county secretary) and an administrator at the Technical University of Kenya Cosmas Kanyadudi.
The candidates from Suba are Suba South MP and the current ODM party national chairman John Mbadi, businessman Sammy Wakiaga and Senator Kajwang’.
Former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga, Kuppet secretary general Akello Misori and former Karachuonyo MP James Rege are also said to be eyeing the office.
Recently, Mbadi, Wanga and Wakiaga waded into the matter.
Mbadi said they have twice wholeheartedly campaigned and voted for Awiti as governor.
Mbadi says Awiti became a governor because of support he got from other clans, adding that they should maintain the unity that leaders started in 2013.
“We were in a meeting with Former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga and former Senator the late Otieno Kajwang’ when we agreed to support Awiti for governor,” Mbadi said during a funds drive in Kibiri, Karachuonyo constituency.
Wanga, however, urges residents to avoid the politics of regional balance and other deals that are likely to polarise the county.
She argues that Homa Bay residents have supported their candidacies in two previous general elections and no leader to should be imposed on residents.
“Let anybody who aspires to a political seat go for it. Our yardstick in electing a leader for any seat should be development track records,” Wanga said in Wangwe, Karachuonyo constituency.
Wakiaga says Homa Bay has lagged behind in development and warns residents against electing a non-performing governor.
The businessman who sought the ODM ticket for governor in 2017 urges residents to only vote for visionary leaders.
He wants the residents to be keen in vetting people interested in the governor's office.
Wakiaga says, “We want a governor who will manage public resources prudently regardless of their clan.”