•The two policy changes will lower cumulative greenhouse gas emissions.
•This means reducing the emissions by 59 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases, or 50 per cent, by 2050.
Electrifying the public transport sector is not enough to curb carbon emissions, a new study has said.
The study, “The Compact City Scenario—Electrified,” reveals, curbing emissions will require the establishment of compact cities developed for walking, cycling and public transport.
The study was done jointly by the Institute for Transportation Development Policy and the University of California, Davis.
The study launched on Monday says the two policy changes will lower cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from urban passenger transport to just below the amount needed to meet the Paris Agreement and avoid the worst effects of climate change.
This means reducing the emissions by 59 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases, or 50 per cent, by 2050.
Kenya recently submitted an updated Nationally Determined Contribution to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, promising to abate greenhouse gas emissions by 32 per cent by 2030.
Kenya’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased from 56.8 MtCO2e in 1995 to 93.7 MtCO2ee in 2015.
The greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase to 143MtCO2e by 2030 as the country pursues the Vision 2030 development agenda.
In 2015, the leading source of emissions was agriculture at 40 per cent of the total emissions, mostly due to livestock enteric fermentation, manure left on pasture and agricultural soils and fertiliser application.
This was closely followed by land use, land-use change and forestry at 38 per cent due to deforestation and energy, including transport 18 per cent.
The report shows a lot still needs to be done to curb emissions.
“We need electrification and compact cities to meet our 1.5°c targets,” Heather Thompson, CEO of the Institute for Transportation Development Policy said.
Thompson said there is a need to focus on the fundamental equation of driving less, even with electric vehicles, which still require a lot of resources like clean electricity.
“We need high-density development that provides better access to employment, education and services for families of all income levels without being dependent on cars,” Thompson said.
“Walkable and cycling cities aren’t just better for the economy and the environment—they’re healthier and happier for everyone. We have the evidence, and we know what needs to be done.”
She said an integrated approach that includes both electrification and compact development is needed and cities must step up.
The United Nations says Africa’s population is expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2025, with nearly half those people residing in cities.
Based on UN population data, 17 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing cities are in Africa.
This rapid urbanisation has led to increasing congestion concerns, prompting cities to explore alternatives to car-centric infrastructure development.
Traffic snarl-ups in the Nairobi metropolis are estimated to cost the country Sh2 billion annually.
To salvage the situation, the government plans to roll out the Bus Rapid Transit.
Nairobi Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has advertised for the supply of Bus Rapid Transit buses for the first phase.
Namata said the buses will be considered based on propulsion technology that includes biodiesel, hybrid and electric.
This is as the pilot phase of the BRT line 2 which runs from Kenol- Thika – Ruiru- Central Business District- Langata Road- Bomas to Rongai is set to start in July.
The new study says redesigning land use in cities around mass transit systems such as BRT and developing high-quality walking and cycling facilities decrease demand for car use and reduce emissions, even if cars remain powered by fossil fuels.
Compact, mixed-use, transit-oriented land-use policies can reduce the overall demand for urban travel by making people’s trips shorter.
Under a business-as-usual trajectory, the number of private cars in African cities could multiply by a factor of five by 2050
This will overload streets that are already congested—causing greenhouse gas emissions to triple to over 900 megatonnes per year.
However, if governments prioritise bicycle lanes, buses, walkable streets, and electric vehicles, there could be a decrease in emissions over the same period of just 240 megatonnes per year, the report reveals.
BRT lanes, bicycle lanes and pedestrian walkways can make those modes of transportation more inviting than driving, encouraging modal shift.
Electrification of bus fleets in addition to the growth of private electric vehicles across the continent is expected to further reduce greenhouse emissions, improving health and quality of life across these cities.
The report says it will be less expensive for governments and consumers alike if cities are built for transit, walking and cycling.
The report says if cities continue to prioritise cars, the average annual cost of urban transportation in Africa will be Sh454,600 ($4,000) per person by 2050.
If cities prioritise walking, cycling and transit instead, that per-person cost could be reduced to Sh318,220 ($2,800), with no decrease in mobility or economic growth.
Edited by Kiilu Damaris