TOM MALITI: Why polls show Mudavadi as preferred Ruto's running mate

Suddenly, ANC leader Wycliffe Mudavadi is a viable choice as running mate for Deputy President William Ruto, who is seeking the presidency in August.

Yet, many of the Amani National Congress legislators have deserted Mudavadi in recent weeks and dismissed his alliance with Ruto. Some went as far as declaring Mudavadi’s political career as finished. So what happened?

Two separate opinion polls were released on February 17.

The polls showed Mudavadi as the preferred running mate for Ruto, way ahead of the second choice.

In the Radio Africa Group poll, 33.9 per cent of the respondents chose Mudavadi as their preferred running mate for Ruto. It put Mudavadi 14 percentage points above the second choice, Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, who polled at 19.6 per cent.

There are three significant points about the Radio Africa Group poll.

First, respondents see Mudavadi as a good choice for running mate but they do not see him as presidential candidate material. Only 1.1 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for Mudavadi as president, if the election was held the day they were polled, while 47.1 per cent of them said they would vote for Ruto as president.

The second significant point of the poll is that by leaving the One Kenya Alliance he had co-founded and joining Ruto, Mudavadi eclipsed all other potential running mates in less than two weeks. He declared he was going into partnership with Ruto on January 23 and the poll was conducted between February 1 and 5.

Three days before he teamed up with Ruto, Mudavadi was placed third as the preferred running mate for Ruto. In the January 20 Radio Africa Group poll, 24.9 per cent of respondents said Gachagua was their preferred running mate, while Mudavadi was third with 10.3 per cent. In second place was Martha Karua with 16.3 per cent. Karua is the Narc Kenya party leader and now in OKA alliance.  

The third significant point of the February 17 poll, is that Mudavadi’s support among Central Kenya respondents as running mate for Ruto was close to Gachagua’s. The Mathira MP had the support of 26.6 per cent of the Central Kenya respondents compared to Mudavadi’s 22.2 per cent. The poll’s margin of error is 1.75 percent.

This suggests Central Kenya voters do not see their interests being protected only if someone from the region is Ruto’s running mate. Their support for Ruto has not dropped significantly in the February poll compared to the past month’s poll.

This suggests they see Ruto taking care of their interests, irrespective of his choice of running mate from among the current pool of potential candidates.

In a separate poll released by Trends and Insights Africa on February 17, Mudavadi led as the preferred running mate for Ruto. He got the support of 27 per cent of respondents in that poll.

The respondents’ picked Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru as the second choice for running mate for Ruto at 15 per cent.

MP Gachagua was third with 11 per cent. TIFA did not canvass the issue of running mates in their previous poll released in December last year.

The February polls show Mudavadi’s decision to leave OKA was good for him and Ruto. Whether this is just a bump in the polls or something more permanent for Mudavadi is yet to be seen. But bump or not, what could have led to Mudavadi’s stock rising as a potential running mate for Ruto? 

One reason is character. Mudavadi is the opposite of Ruto, who is combative. Mudavadi is diplomatic. Ruto has a put-down at the ready for his opponents. The ANC boss prefers to debate policy. And when Mudavadi does try and put down an opponent, it backfires at times, for instance his effort at dismissing Ruto’s bottom-up economic model using a bottle to illustrate.

Gachagua’s character is similar to Ruto’s and respondents may be saying they wish to see a running mate who is not the mirror-image of the presidential candidate. Perhaps they see Mudavadi as he sees himself: a safe pair of hands.

Another reason Mudavadi’s stock may be rising as a potential running mate for Ruto is his experience, which many leading politicians in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance lack.  

Mudavadi was first appointed as a Cabinet minister in 1989 and his last stint in Cabinet was as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Local Government between 2008 and 2013. His 19 year-experience as a Cabinet minister is more than Ruto’s 14 and a half years.

For the 19 years Mudavadi served in the Cabinet, he was also an MP, making him one of the longest-serving legislators in the Kenya Kwanza Alliance. This, despite the fact that he was last in Parliament in 2013. Respondents may be saying they like the energy in Ruto’s presidential campaign but the team needs depth as well. This is what Mudavadi brings to his political alliance with Ruto.

All this does not mean Mudavadi is a shoo-in to be Ruto’s running mate. For one, there could be other people being considered as running mates in the Ruto camp who are not in the public eye. For another, Ruto will undoubtedly keep an eye on who may make the shortlist of potential running mates in the rival Azimio La Umoja Movement. And yet another consideration maybe what OKA’s Kalonzo Musyoka decides to do. Will he join the Azimio la Umoja and in what capacity? Or will he make his second attempt at becoming president?

Whatever happens, there is no question Mudavadi’s political stock has risen, at least for now.

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