For many years, tribal alignments have been a key factor during General Elections in Kwale county.
The Duruma, Digo and Akamba communities have been the dominant tribal groups in Kwale county, which has a population of 866,820, according to the 2019 Census.
However, there are other ethnic groups, including Luos, Kikuyus and the Makondes, who have also inter-married with locals.
The Duruma are largely found in Lunga Lunga and Kinango while Digos are in Matuga and Msambweni subcounties.
Although political parties, culture and religion also have a strong influence on the outcome of the region's politics, they have withered over time.
It is believed that for one to seek an elective seat in Kwale, regardless of tribe, he/she must seek support from the Digo, Duruma and the Kamba, who are the majority.
However, a candidate must also convince the other small communities to lend their support because not all Digos, Durumas and Kambas would automatically vote for one candidate.
Coast political analyst Hassan Mwakimako said even though the three communities play a major role in Kwale politics, there is a gradual change to issue-based politics.
He said locals are now looking at a person's ability to lead, development record and unifying factor.
"Kwale politics has taken a new direction; people now vote for visionary and development-oriented leaders whose core character is to unite citizens," said Mwakimako.
He gave an example of 2013, when Governor Salim Mvurya was first elected through the ODM party and later re-elected on the Jubilee ticket in 2017.
The region has been an ODM stronghold since 2007.
He said despite ODM party's dominance in the region, citizens chose to rally behind Mvurya, who had defected to Jubilee, because of his good leadership and development track record.
In 2017, Mvurya garnered 118,680 votes against former Transport Minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere, who came second with 29,741 votes through a Wiper Party ticket, while ODM's Issa Chipera secured 28,727 votes.
However, the majority of MPs in the region were elected on ODM tickets, despite locals voting for a Jubilee Party governor.
Mwakimako said locals looked more at the individual's agenda.
The same happened on December 15, 2020 during the Msambweni by-election, where independent candidate Feisal Bader dethroned ODM's Omar Boga.
Bader decamped from ODM and ran as an independent candidate after the party favoured Boga in the party nomination process.
The analyst said politics of parties and tribal support are long gone, therefore, politicians must strive to develop good manifestos.
"You might come from a certain tribe and not all the people from that community will vote for you because locals are looking for a quality leader and honest one, not tribal and corrupt leaders," he said.
In a previous interview with the Star, Mwakwere said Kwale political dynamics have changed because voters are now educated and are well conversant with county politics.
He said the electorate is focused on leaders who can spearhead development, address unemployment and land injustices in the region.
"This time around, politicians should brace themselves for a major shock, because tribal politics are no more. People are enlightened and you cannot fool them. Leaders will be chosen based on qualities, agenda and development record," he said.
He added that political support from either current or outgoing leaders will not be of any effect in the upcoming General Election in the region.
Kwale county assembly Majority leader James Dawa also said the times when aspirants were elected based on the political parties they belong to or tribe are long gone.
He said locals have become wiser and vote for leaders whom they trust and can address their challenges regardless of religion, gender or community they come from.
"Kwale people have no specific party; people are elected based on how they sell their manifestos and ability to deliver," he said.
Cultural practices and religion also had an influence on Kwale politics.
The majority of the Mijikenda and the Muslim community believe that a woman cannot lead.
In Kwale, Muslims are the majority with a population of 520, 160, followed by Christians 313, 058 (2019 census).
Dawa said raising awareness on equality through campaigns by human rights organisations and the government has helped change the narrative.
However, he said the gender issue still plays as a determinant factor and will be a strong conversation in 2022 politics for those vying for the county top seats.
"There would be a great challenge because some women who were previously given an opportunity, messed up everything. Instead of performing, they wasted time proving to men that they can rule them," he said.
However, political analyst Raphael Chimera opposed the assertions, saying politics is about agenda not gender.
He said anyone can be elected regardless of gender or the community they come from, as long as they meet the campaign threshold.
He said the Kwale people consecutively voted for Mvurya in 2013 and 2017, knowing very well his deputy was a woman.
"We cannot say religion or culture has any impact on politics. Several women have been elected to power by the same communities despite the existing traditions and cultures," he said.
Chimera said it is a constitutional right for every Kenyan to participate in politics and currently, Kwale politics are not focused on certain tribes or gender, but manifestos.
However, even as political observers say that tribe, religion or culture will not have much significance in Kwale politics, politicians are still playing it safe.
Most of the candidates seeking to take over from Mvurya are looking for running mates from either the Duruma or Digo communities.
Recently, Deputy Governor Fatuma Achani, who is from the Digo community, chose a Duruma - Chirema Josphat Kombo - as her running mate.
Agriculture Principal Secretary Prof Hamadi Boga, who is also a Digo, has teamed up with Tourism PS Safina Kwekwe, a Duruma, as his running mate.
A similar pattern is expected to be copied by other candidates who are jostling to succeed Mvurya.
Those who seek to take over Kwale leadership are Mwakwere, Kwale county speaker Sammy Ruwa, Kenya Ports Authority Eng Chai Lung'anzi, Gereza Dena and Suleiman Lugogo.
Edited by CM
