2023 will be a high-octane year for Kenya politically and economically. Politically, eyes will be on President William Ruto to see how he crafts his political machine with the aim of endearing Kenyans and his eyes on the 2027 election.
In a sense, allies building and reaching areas that did not vote for him will be critical. Critical still is to build insurance on areas that voted for him but which can turn against him if their demands are not met such as the Mt Kenya region.
The experience of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta with Mt Kenya region during his last term in office is enough lesson. Yet still, his desired second term in office will inevitably be viewed with a lot of suspicion and a lot of mistrust by politicians and the electorate alike going by Uhuru's last term.
In America, the second and last term in office can mean a lame-duck president. In Kenya, the second and last term in office can mean the president has other ideas of his own or some other changes, hence, political strategies and schemes.
So the first term in Kenya’s presidency may mean many things that will happen in the second term in office. This is part of William Rut to handle in his first term in office.
In a sense politically it won’t be easy for President Ruto to craft an easy ride to manage the politics that will spill over to his second term in office. This is one distraction to deal with very carefully. He has the diversity of Kenyan communities and the politics therein to manage. It can easily mean a chaotic second term in office as it happened to Uhuru or worse.
Kenya is made up of numerous communities with unique economic and geographic realities and with a lot of expectations that are not easy to manage. Moreover, unlike before, many people are more enlightened, especially on political and economic expectations.
From the onset, Ruto will necessarily have an eye on the 2027 general election as he would have to on the economy. The challenges with the economy, which has been ravaged by the Covid-19 pandemic and the global effects of the Russia and Ukraine war were Uhuru's doing during the last days of his presidency and caused his succession game plan to hit the rocks.
Ruto has better start early to craft his legacy and plan for the future as the dynamism plus tribal nature of Kenyan politics can never be ignored. Street and even village talk has it that he has two centres of power below him to manage carefully—Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.
Street talk, at least in Nairobi, indicates that he shows more favour to the latter. This is a perception that cannot be wished away easily. Therefore, expect the Mt Kenya region to remain restless as it would want to remain at the centre of power into perpetuity.
Unlike the Moi era, it is not easy to tame the Mt Kenya region power and economic game plans. They are more alert than before. But Kenya belongs to all communities and how to balance their interests is and will never be easy.
From street talk, Mt Kenya communities are heavily concerned about economic interests that cut across all sectors, beginning with agriculture, micro, small to medium enterprises, the financial sector, being in strategic government positions, the fortune of big commercial enterprises, diaspora and so on and so many others.
So they expect a better deal than they got with the Uhuru regime which Ruto promised variously during the campaigns.
Ruto has some good thoughts for the country, more so to do with the diaspora engagement. This can be a game changer and I would even personally encourage he pushes it harder and further with government involvement in structures, laws, systems and mechanisms of engagement to grow this sector as it has the potential to contribute to eradicating unemployment whilst also as a means to tap finances and investments to the country.
What of a diaspora bond to government affordable housing and infrastructure programmes among others? This area has endless opportunities. How about incorporating this community and others in various programmes? I think we have a lot of resourceful people in Kenya and outside who can energise the government's venture into this. What I simply mean is that there lie endless opportunities to tap into.
So my prediction is President Ruto will face a restless public expecting so much on many fronts, including managing the cost of living and unemployment crises while expecting the taming of insecurity and expansion of civil liberties plus managing the gargantuan tribal political games that are already evident in his government.
The economy will require his attention 24-7 and I expect a lot of pressure coming on this. The economy can easily turn into a political nightmare in the 2027 election if a lot of informed efforts are not invested into it 24-7.
Political, economic and social analyst and commentator