ODM leader Raila Odinga and his Wiper counterpart Kalonzo Musyoka are holding behind-the-scenes talks that could trigger major realignments in the coming weeks.
The Star has established that confidants of the two leaders have been locked out of the high-level talks that could see the two team up again. They ran together in 2013 and 2017.
The talks have been ongoing for about two months.
“It’s true, they have been talking but at their level [as party chiefs]. We can’t tell how far they have reached, but it’s a fact, they have been talking,” a senior Wiper official confided in the Star.
Sources within Raila’s inner circle also disclosed the duo has met "several times" in the past "few months".
A deal between the two could jolt the nascent One Kenya Alliance whose top brass have been pulling in different directions.
Apart from Kalonzo, the other principals in Oka principals are Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Gideon Moi (Kanu) and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya).
Sources said Mudavadi is determined to go all the way to the ballot and Gideon also is reportedly preparing to announce his presidential bid.
On Thursday, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru was accompanied to Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission headquarters by Musalia's second in command, Ayub Savula.
This was just days after Musalia revealed he could pick a running mate from Mt Kenya.
Raila is battling to split Mt Kenya with Deputy President William Ruto and his think tank says the two million votes from Lower Eastern are a must-have.
The details and nature of the talks between Raila and Kalonzo remain scant.
Those aware of the negotiations say they do not know who will support whom for the country’s top seat.
“They are looking at the dynamics of the upcoming polls but we have a common agreement that should the matrices be allowed, then Raila should support Kalonzo," one insider confided.
“He will have made a phenomenal statement in that regard. But as it stands now, that is yet to be reached conclusively,” another source said.
Of all the OKA bosses, Raila's think tank believes Kalonzo is the most significant player commanding support in his bastion.
With all the three Ukambani governors — Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and Alfred Mutua (Machakos) —gravitating towards Raila, a deal with Kalonzo could cement the base in his favour.
On Thursday, Makueni Senator and Wiper national vice chairman Mutula Kilonzo Jnr said he was not aware of the talks. He did admit "speculation" that the two leaders have been engaging.
Makueni MP Dan Maanzo said their party boss has been under pressure from "some quarters" to back Raila but added, "We have warned against such an attempt."
“I just want to tell those people who are lobbying for Raila to be supported again by Kalonzo to know that it will not happen. The community has said no. Not again,” Maanzo said.
Kalonzo was Raila’s running mate in 2013 and 2017.
The two have maintained a cordial relationship. In fact, it was Kalonzo who unlocked the Nasa cash impasse whereby ODM agreed to give Nasa affiliates more than Sh152 million.
The revelation of Raila-Kalonzo talks comes just a day after a group of Kalonzo’s Ukambani allies threatened to abandon him if he deputised Raila for the presidency in 2022. They were led by Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua.
They warned the former vice president against any attempt to back the ODM boss again.
“Should our party leader ever make the decision to support the Rt Hon Raila Amolo Odinga for the presidency, we respectfully assure him of two very painful outcomes,” they said.
They warned that they will not only abandon Kalonzo, but also his Kamba community would never forgive him.
The threats evoked memories of the 2017 pre-election negotiations in which former Kitui West MP and National Assembly Minority leader Francis Nyenze (deceased) threatened to pull Kalonzo out of Nasa if he was not declared the flag-bearer.
In fact, Nyenze had given the Nasa bosses a seven-day ultimatum to name Kalonzo the presidential flag-bearer or else they would abandon the united opposition coalition.
He had demanded Raila honour the 2013 pre-election coalition agreement and back Kalonzo for the country’s top job.
“That committee is skewed and the results will favour only one side, so we don’t have to keep meeting. Even if we meet a hundred times, we will not agree until the MoU is honoured,” Nyenze had said in March 2017.
Raila has said there's no valid agreement as he didn't win the presidency.
Some Kalonzo allies accused the Senator Wambua-led team of fighting for their interests with their hardline position and ultimatum to their leader.
There are reports Wambua is eyeing the Kitui governor seat and is keen to face incumbent Charity Ngilu.
Ngilu has declared support for Raila. Any talks to bring Kalonzo and Raila together could make Wambua's campaign message tricky.
Wambua dismissed the reports he wants to unseat Ngilu, saying his interest is the community.
“I don’t want to be President. I don’t want to be governor so I don't have any interest other than that of the community. Our community is saying Kalonzo should not back Raila again. That is it,” he told the Star.
Kalonzo has maintained that he’s going for the top seat and recently opened his presidential command centre as he prepares to put his best foot forward for the coveted seat.
He enjoys a massive following in the Ukambani region. In the last two general elections, the region voted for Raila almost to a man (and woman).
“Kalonzo has an emotional and irrational following from his core base of Lower Eastern Kenya as well as parts of Coast and Rift Valley," Nairobi-based political risk analyst Dismus Mokua said.
"He doesn’t have sufficient numbers to go it alone nor the resources and strategy to support a top-of-the-ticket candidate."
Mokua, however, said Kalonzo will be instrumental and key in determining who occupies State House next year.
“The probability of Kalonzo being a deputy president is very high. He holds the swing vote,” the analyst said.
It’s understood Raila and his strategists are keen to persuade Kalonzo to join their camp, a move that would assure the former prime minister of the Ukambani vote bloc.
(Edited by V. Graham)
