Saudi Aramco is dead in the water

The surge in the oil price will have zero effect on the IPO because now the overwhelming geopolitical question is around the longevity of the house of Saudi and its crown prince

In Summary
  • The production shutdown amounts to a loss of about five million barrels a day and is a big deal.
A general view of Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia/REUTERS
A general view of Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia/REUTERS

Last week was the Anniversary of 9/11 and it is increasingly apparent that more Americans are questioning the official 9/11 story as new evidence contradicts the Official Narrative.

[MintPress News] The overwhelming evidence presented now demonstrates beyond any doubt that pre-planted explosives and/or incendiaries — not just airplanes and the ensuing fires — caused the destruction of the three World Trade Center buildings, killing the vast majority of the victims who perished that day.

The official narrative around the assassination of JFK has been similarly debunked. Two great American writers have touched on this Don DeLillo in his book Libra "There is a world inside the world." 

"There's always more to it. This is what history consists of. It is the sum total of the things they aren't telling us.

" Thomas Pynchon in Bleeding Edge “No matter how the official narrative of this turns out," it seemed to Heidi, "these are the places we should be looking, not in newspapers or television but at the margins, graffiti, uncontrolled utterances, bad dreamers who sleep in public and scream in their sleep.”

Events in Saudi Arabia this weekend have been interpreted every which way and allow me to try and interpret the events outside the Echo Chamber that is the Saudi paid PR machine and the reflexive Pompeo ''Iranians under the bed'' standard response. 

It has been reported that a swarm of ten armed and explosive drones struck at the heart of the Kingdom's oil industry. The strikes were on Saudi Arabia's seven million barrel per day Abqaiq processing complex and its second-biggest oil field, Khurais, Saudi Aramco describes its Abqaiq oil processing facility there as “the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world.”

Abqaiq is perhaps the world’s most important oil installation. According to the @EIAgov, the plant has a capacity of more than seven million b/d or about 8% of the world's total oil production [Energy Intelligence].

Most of the oil produced in the country [Saudi Arabia] is processed at Abqaiq before export or delivery to refineries.  

Saudi Aramco is assuring the world it can restore output quickly but has admitted that the production shutdown amounts to a loss of about five million barrels a day, the people said, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude oil. The kingdom produces 9.8 million barrels a day.

I cannot recall an attack of this severity in the Kingdom ever.  The Houthis took responsibility for this attack. U.N. investigators have previously pronounced that the Houthis’ new UAV-X drone, likely has a range of up to 1,500 kilometers (930 miles). Secretary Pompeo immediately dismissed the possibility that these drones originated from Yemen and blamed Iran.

More worryingly for the Kingdom are reports of cooperation by people in Saudi Arabia.

It may well be that drones were launched from inside Saudi Arabia and that their launch point was far nearer to the targets than publicly assumed.

Neither option is a good one. If The Houthis did launch the attack from Yemen, it speaks to the fact that nowhere in the Kingdom is safe and the Houthis have achieved an asymmetric balance, which is quite extraordinary.

In November 2017, I wrote of how the then 30-year-old crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed bin Salman had arrived on the scene and immediately launched an unwinnable war in Yemen.

It will be a cakewalk MBS said over in a week he said and they will be throwing rose petals at our feet. Abu Dhabi's MBZ saw the writing on the wall and stop-loss his Yemeni Adventure.

It is clear now that the ''Yemen War has become Saudi Arabia’s Vietnam (or Soviet Union’s Afghanistan or indeed U.S. version of Afghanistan)''  @JKempEnergy and that the ''The kingdom has thrown everything into conflict but failed to achieve a decisive military advantage and favourable political endgame.

'' More worrying for the Kingdom is the second scenario were these drones might have been launched within the Kingdom which would be signaling that the Houthis might well have teamed up with the Saudi Shia who represent up to 25% of the population and have been ground down viciously by the House of Saud, characterised as Apostates and whose Leaders have been beheaded and crucified.

  Zerohedge is speculating that this is a false flag attack designed to ramp up the price of oil in order to grease the way for the Saudi Aramco IPO.

If this is true and I put the probability at zero then the Crown Prince is I am afraid insane for who would buy a share of a company when its major installations are not secure but under severe attacks?

The Saudi Aramco IPO is now dead in the water.

The surge in the oil price [which I will get to momentarily] will have zero effect on the IPO because now the overwhelming geopolitical question is around the longevity of the house of Saud and its crown prince who is, of course, the proud owner of Leonardo Da Vinci's Salvatori Mundi which means Saviour of the World and according to Robert Baer has so.

Many enemies that he sleeps on his $500m yacht the Serene off Jeddah. The much commented on Orb is of no help now.

If the Houthis have tapped into the Saudi Shia, the House of Saud, in my opinion, is on its last legs. This is a big call and needs to be understood for that.  

No amount of paid PR or kind words from Trump can finesse this.

Over the weekend, so many of the Oil Watchers I follow were saying we must wait for the Official Saudi comment.

Let me tell you this for free. Saudi comment is worthless, irrelevant and paid for.  The Oil Markets open on Sunday evening.

On June 17th this year I wrote [quite presciently I must admit] ''All global markets have become liquidity Traps. The Oil Markets trade 24 hours but in the early hours is when Gremlin Wizards and Djinns [The Quran says that the Djinn are made of a smokeless and "scorching fire", they are usually invisible to humans, but humans do appear clearly to Djinn, as they can possess them.

DJinn have the power to travel large distances at extreme speeds and are thought to live in remote areas - so now You Know] stalk the Exchanges like the FX Markets. Therefore, we could very well see a price spike.

one touch is the way to go''  I reckon we could jump as high as $80 which would be a +45.00% leap versus Friday's closing price before we trade back to about +10% with would be about $60.00+ as Trump unloads crude from the reserve.

So Big Price Spike then retracement but then if we do get within 10% of Fridays closing Price of $54.83, then you need to get long.  

The production shutdown amounts to a loss of about five million barrels a day and is a big deal.  In May I wrote about Iran and I quoted Hunter S.

Thompson who described The Edge [and I was describing Iran as being at the Edge] thus  “There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over'' My Mistake was to think Iran was at the Thompsonian Edge whereas it is clear now that it is the Kingdom.