Osaka G20, Xi and Trump, a visit to the DMZ and a limit Short in the Eurodollar market

In Summary

• The UK and South African Houses of Parliament are similarly unputdownable.

• Returning to the G20, We had Trump and Xi going Toe to Toe for the main course but this was preceded by Babette's Feast of hors d'oeuvres.

US President Donald Trump.
US President Donald Trump.

These headline big ticket Events like the G20 which was held in Osaka are I find simply unputdownable and a Hollywood Bollywood level spectacle.

The UK and South African Houses of Parliament are similarly unputdownable.

Returning to the G20, We had Trump and Xi going Toe to Toe for the main course but this was preceded by Babette's Feast of hors d'oeuvres.

[South Koreans served 12 cold Korean starters on the official menu -- among them steamed sea urchin with tofu and mini-hamburgers. The main dish was a sirloin steak made of US beef, accompanied by bulgogi sauce, pickled garlic leaves at a dinner for President Trump ahead of his handshake visit to the DMZ, which I will speak to momentarily] Bolsanaro waited 25 minutes for Xi and then cancelled which must be a first for the Supreme Leader.We had Daddy's little Princess Ivanka doing her ''Disney'' thing. MBS, of course, loomed over proceedings. Prime Minister Trudeau arrived well prepared clutching a clunky briefcase, Tito Mboweni took Photos with Vladimir. Theresa May did a Xi Jinping with Vladimir [Pulling a Face looking away as if there is an assault happening on your olfactory senses at the very moment the Photo is taken].

Trump has now found a way of deflecting the prima facie charge of Russian interference in the 2016 Election and it is the equivalent of

''You Bad Bad Boy Vlad. Don't do it again, you hear.'' or words to that effect.

And I thought I noticed Vladimir was quite impressed with the role play and the ''political'' subtlety around the Trump side step.

 

The Big Issues were Climate Change [Macron had made this his red line], longevity and the Digital Economy but of course the Big Set Piece Event was Saturdays Trump Xi Sit Down. President Xi Jinping played his hand with extreme courtesy finesse and some old fashioned etiquette seeking out Trump the day before at the Official Photo session. This was a subtle triangulation move.

The Read Out was as follows.

President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart, Donald Trump, agree to restart China-US #Trade consultations. @ChinaDaily

“We’re right back on track and we’ll see what happens,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters Reuters 

The 80-minute meeting with Xi was “excellent, as good as it was going to be,” Trump added.

“Cooperation and dialogue are better than friction and confrontation,” Xi said.

Trump responded that a fair trade deal with China would be “historic” and he hoped “We can go on to do something that truly will be monumental and great for both countries.”

 

"Let's wait and Xi" said Citibank.

''A lot of people are drawing a lot of unwarranted conclusions about the course of the US-China relationship based on a meeting, which probably didn’t resolve very much, and a press conference with a guy who is liable to say anything and completely reverse it a day later'' said @prchovanec

Marco Rubio tweeted ''If President Trump has agreed to reverse recent sanctions against #Huawei he has made a catastrophic mistake'' which speaks to my first overarching Point that being President Trump is not the ''Decider'' in this matter. What we have witnessed is good Theatre but entirely meaningless. I think both sides are making an economic calculation. Trump wants to keep the US Economy ''blowing hot'' into his reelection. And Xi understands that this negotiation is much more than a ''Reality TV'' show 90 minute engagement and a Time-out will give some respite from what is now becoming a sharp slow down with asymmetric cliff edge downside risks . Therefore, this is a Christmas truce (German: Weihnachtsfrieden; French: Trêve de Noël was a series of widespread but unofficial ceasefires along the Western Front of World War I around Christmas 1914]. However, this is 1914 and not 1918.

In the Spirit of ''Reality TV'' which of course sinks or swims on ratings, President Trump detoured into the DMZ AND became the first sitting US president to cross into North Korea after meeting Mr Kim at the demilitarised zone. The Ratings were off the charts. Of course, the Folks in Tehran must be calculating that they need to speed up Iranium enrichment and get a proper deterrent and then they too will be holding hands with President Trump. Trump will parlay these DMZ Photo Ops into a major Foreign Policy success.

The markets flew higher in June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its best June since 1938! Gold blew through $1,400.00 for the first time since 2013. Bitcoin which dropped $2,000.00 in a blink of an eye last week remains up around +200% in 2019. Interest Rates nose-dived specifically in the US where the market has now priced in a halving of the FED Fund rate from 2.50% to 1.25% over the next 12 months. You might not know this but I was a Short End Trader in my previous Career in the City of London and I made my first reputation-making Trade at Credit Suisse First Boston all those years ago in the Eurodollar market. And if I were back at that Desk I would be limit Short the Eurodollar [US interest rates] market as from Monday.

Reality will soon intrude on this Reality Show.