OPINION

'What’s happening brother' - Bitcoin, USDCNH and WTI

In Summary

• Bitcoin is trading at Fresh Highs of $9,270 (Sh927,000).

Bitcoin.
Bitcoin.
Image: FILE

Marvin Gaye born Marvin Pentz Gay Jr and who was fatally shot by Marvin Gay Sr., at their house in Los Angeles was a musician, Poet and Seer and one of his most powerful songs was called  ''What’s Happening Brother''

Hey baby, what you know good

I'm just getting back, but you knew I would

War is hell, when will it end?

When will people start getting together again?

Are things really getting better, like the newspaper said

And that Title  ''What’s Happening Brother'' is on a loop in my mind. 

So lets start with the enigmatic and mercurial Fugitive and Bitcoin evangelist John McAfee, who always seems to pop up in my Feed like an acid Trip whenever Bitcoin is doing its Parabola imitation. 

But it is a curve each of them feels, unmistakably. It is the parabola.  They must have guessed, once or twice -guessed and refused to believe -that everything, always, collectively, had been moving toward that purified shape latent in the sky, that shape of no surprise, no second chance, no return.’’

Bitcoin is trading at Fresh Highs of $9,270.00 and aside from Beyond Meat and Zoom has posted the best returns in 2019 and is in triple digit % gain territory. 

 

Paul Virilio captured the essence of our c21st Zeitgeist with this quote 

"Wealth is the hidden side of speed and speed the hidden side of wealth"

Bitcoin, Beyond Meat and Zoom is Virilio's quote expressed in market terms. Bitcoin is something like 50% below the All Time Highs. I recommended Bitcoin this year at $5,350.00. I am recommending Bitcoin again on a supreme conviction basis. A great deal of the Price surge is correlated to Chinese Flight Capital, in my opinion.

Hong Kong is savouring a quite momentous Geopolitical Victory and seriously countertrend in point of fact. The Supreme and ''Paramount Leader'' made his first [that I can recall] volte-face. The Carrie Lam Administration has withdrawn the Extradition Law indefinitely. Make no mistake the Decider in this matter is  Xi who has moved with despatch. Essentially, he understood Hong Kong could not be ''Xinjiang-ed'' Furthermore, being a ''Paramount Leader'' is a double-edged sword.

“This is all on Xi’s shoulders,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of Beijing-based research firm Trivium China. [Bloomberg]

“Xi has personally said that he would handle relations with the United States and at this point, he has failed. Those relations are spiraling out of control.” [Bloomberg]

The Periphery is a Boil that will not be lanced. Official Economic data out of China is beginning to roll over with Industrial production at 2002 lows. I would venture that if President Trump could dial down the theatrics, it would be very clear that his Signature Tariff Policy [coercive, sanction, currency etc warfare] is inflicting a lot more pain than is being inflicted on it. President Xi spent his 66th birthday being fed Russian ice-cream by his Bestie Vladimir in Dushanbe and who would not because Ice-Cream is comfort food after all. I think one touch 7.50 USD CNH Calls are worthy of a keen look.

Now another Big Happening is the Crude Oil Market. Here Two powerful Gale Force Winds are at work. The IEA has now twice downshifted Demand and what is clear is we are facing significant demand destruction and it is this Penny dropping which took down Oil more than 20% from its 2019 Highs and we are now at 5 month lows. However, what is not clear yet is the degree of Supply destruction we are facing. One third of all oil traded by sea, which amounts to 20% of oil traded worldwide, passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance rates demanded  for Tankers operating in the area are up to 20 times higher [@Chigrl].

@ejmalrai reports Ali Akbar Velayati saying that  “if Iran can’t export oil through the Persian Gulf, no-one in the Middle East will be able do this” and  “expects further attacks in the future, given the US decision to stop the flow of oil by all means at all costs. Thus, oil will stop being delivered to the world if Iran can’t export its two million barrels per day”.

The overwhelming confidence that Iran is displaying, both in rhetoric and action, is astounding says Stratfor.

All the global markets have become liquidity Traps. The Oil Markets trade 24 hours but in the early hours is when Gremlin Wizards and Djinns stalk the Exchanges like the FX Markets. Therefore, if this Khamenei Trump bout Fest kicks off then we could very well see a Price Spike. One Touch is the Way to go