Late adoption of GMO maize, cotton and potato costs Kenya Sh28.4 billion – report

Dubbed the Cost of Delay, the study by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) found that five years of unnecessary delays in Kenya’s commercial adoption of Bt maize cost the country’s farmers and consumers $67 million (Sh8.7 billion).

The report shows that an acre of BT maize in Kenya produces an average of 35 bags (90kg each), with the total yield depending significantly on practices like using improved seeds, proper fertilization, moisture management, and controlling pests and diseases.

This is 21 bags more compared to conventional seeds that produce an average of 14 bags per acre. " This is a difference of close ot Sh85,000 per acre, not considering additional acreage likely to be brought under production in less rainfall and maize disease-prone regions.'' 

Last year, Kenya produced 67 million 90-kg bags valued at Sh28.1 billion. The report indicates that the country can triple its production if it embraces BT maize. 

According to the report, without a five-year delay, Bt maize could have been available to farmers as early as 2019, generating significant economic benefits by reducing pesticide usage and thereby costs, increasing farmer yields and profits, and reducing food prices for consumers.

Speaking during the launch of the report in Nairobi on Wednesday, Canisius Kanangire, the executive director of AATF, warned that the country is set to lose more if it wastes time in adopting biotechnology.  

''We estimate the potential economic benefits of these three GM crops in terms of the additional crop yields and farmer profits, decreased pesticide use, and lower food prices for consumers attributable to the adoption of the technology,'' he said.

According to the report, these three advanced crop varieties could inject Sh60.7 billion into Kenya's economy over the next three decades, if adopted without further delays.

"We also estimated the environmental benefits in terms of reduced global greenhouse gas emissions due to reductions in deforestation using the Carbon Opportunity Cost approach."

The report projects that, by 2030, the total economic benefits of Bt maize without delay in release could have reached $218 million.

If Kenya had started growing Bt maize in 2019, then in 2024—after the technology would have spread to more farmers—the country could have produced 194,000 tonnes more domestic maize. 

This is equal to 25 per cent of imports received in 2022, and 14 times higher than the total maize food transfer from the UN World Food Programme to Kenya in 2023.

The increase in domestic production could also strengthen the country’s crop yields compared to Tanzania, its closest competitor in East Africa.

Kenya is a net importer of maize, spending an average of Sh24.7 billion annually for the past five years. 

The report shows that the amount of money the country has lost in adoption of the biotechnology maize that is resistant to drought, Fall armyworm and maize stalk borer could have bought 389,000 metric tonnes, more than 250,000 metric tonnes that the state plans to import this year. 

Last year, Nigeria formally approved the commercial release and adoption of genetically modified (GM) maize varieties, joining South Africa, which has since managed to triple production since it adopted the technology in 1998, with significant adoption in 2001-2002.

Due to a five-year delay in the release of Bt cotton in Kenya, we estimate a cost to the country’s farmers and consumers of $1.2 million (close to Sh156 million).

Although Kenya has actively promoted the use of Bt cotton since approving its commercial cultivation in 2020 to revive the textile industry and improve cotton yields by controlling African bollworm pests, the late adoption has seen both farmers and consumers lose millions of shillings in value. 

According to the report, without a five-year delay, Bt cotton could have been released in Kenya in 2015 rather than 2020 and could have benefited Kenyan farmers and consumers by a total of $2.6 million by 2028.

"If Kenya had started growing Bt cotton in 2015, then in 2023—when the technology would have spread to more farmers—the country could have produced 650 tonnes more domestic cotton," the report shows.

This increase in domestic production could have replaced 12 per cent of the cotton imported in 2022.

The report shows that Bt cotton has the potential to help revitalise Kenya’s textile industry, and earlier release of the variety may have helped prevent some of the ongoing decline in the sector.

Besides maize and cotton, Kenya has paid dearly for not adopting the late blight disease-resistant 3R-gene Shangi potato variety.

This disease-resistant potato variety would benefit Kenyan farmers and consumers by $163 million and $84 million, respectively, over a period of 30 years.

A 5-year lag in the release of the 3R-gene Shangi would reduce the benefits to farmers and consumers by $59 million and $30 million, respectively.

The AATF report adds that an increase in domestic production of potato, a dietary staple for subsistence farmers, could strengthen the country’s food security.

Generally, scientists project that if Bt maize and Bt cotton were widely adopted in Kenya, the increase in yields would reduce global deforestation and land use change due to agriculture, resulting in enough land-sparing to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 0.23–0.72 million metric tons of CO2e per year.

This is equivalent to 0.2–0.7 per cent of Kenya’s total GHG emissions in 2020.

"We did not estimate the potential for GM late blight disease-resistant potato to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions because the crop is used almost solely as subsistence in Kenya, and therefore is not part of the global agricultural trade that impacts global emissions."

They argue that, adoption of GM crops can have many other advantages, including a reduction in pesticide use, which benefits both human health and the environment; an increase in the country’s food security and food self-sufficiency, resulting in decreased dependence on rising food aid and imports; and increased competitiveness within trading blocs.

"To capitalise on the full potential of GM technology, it is imperative that Kenya should avoid further costly delays and ensure the timely review and approval of future GM crops."

The research concludes that this approach is essential not only for enhancing agricultural productivity but also for contributing to the reduction of agriculture’s sizable global carbon footprint.