Kenya has to wait for President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to know the way forward on the trade talks with the US, as a deal under Joe Biden looks uncertain.
This comes as experts project a favourable environment for Kenya and other strategic African countries under Trump’s government, as the US moves to rival China and Russia in deepening ties with the continent.
While Trump showed little love for the continent during his first term in office ( 2017-21 ), a period that was marketed by disparaging comments about “shithole countries”, he is expected to implement a strong African policy that shifts from aid to partnerships.
His win has thrown the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) talks between Kenya and the US into disarray, amid expected changes in key US government offices that will affect the country’s lead negotiating team.
Kenya however remains optimistic that the process will continue unaffected. President William Ruto and Biden had hoped to seal a deal before the latter’s exit from office ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
According to former US Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman, who resigned in November after Trump’s triumph, a deal had been anticipated during the ‘lame duck’ period.
This is the period between after elections (November) and handing over of power to the elected President, which is now 11 days away.
“It is now a wait and see on what direction the Trump administration will now take,” an official at the State Department for Trade told the Star.
Changes at the Oval Office now sends back the talks to another cycle that has been witnessed in successive elections in the two countries, delaying the process that commenced in July 2020 during Trump and Uhuru Kenyatta’s tenures.
After the US elections in November 2020, President Biden’s administration took time to review part of the pact before initiating a fresh round of talks.
Kenya then went into an election in August 2022, which saw then Deputy President William Ruto ascend to power, with his administration taking over the negotiations.
Ruto and Biden’s administrations then settled to seek a deal under what is now known a Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP), which threw out some of the progress that had been made earlier.
A similar pattern is expected to repeat itself as Trump puts his team in charge, with an imminent review of the process that was being overseen by Biden’s US Trade Representative, Ambassador Katherine Tai.
Kenya’s Trade PS Alfred K’Ombudo has however held firm that the two counties have a long-standing trade, investment and development cooperation relationship that is based on “common and enduring principles.”
“Our joint trade policy work is therefore based on continuously advancing instruments that will deepen two-way trade, encourage integration of Kenyan firms into global value chains and into the $26 trillion US market, and also encourage opportunities for U S firms keen to trade and invest with Kenya and the wider $4trillion African market,” he noted.
“An election in the United States or even in Kenya will therefore not change this common and long-standing partnership. We look forward to deepening and advancing our trade policy engagements,” the PS had said late last year.
The Atlantic Council, an American think tank, predicts that under Trump 2.0, the US is expected to try and tame the substantial growth in China’s influence in Africa, riding on the Development Finance Corporation (DFC) created during his previous tenure, to address the weakening of US influence in Africa.
The first Trump administration also launched the Prosper Africa initiative, in an effort to support US investment across the continent.
“Trump’s focus on a transactional approach with Africa will likely place an emphasis on reducing development assistance in favour of expanding US-Africa business ties and fostering economic growth through free-market principles,” the Washington D.C headquartered firm says in a report.
Renewals of AGOA and DFC in
2025 and the Export-Import Bank
in 2026—if they occur—would provide signals of the direction Trump
wants to pursue in his trade strategy
toward Africa, the council noted.