Let us learn to understand - and respect - opinion polls

According to an opinion poll by Ipsos Synovate, which we published yesterday, President Uhuru Kenyatta has an overwhelming lead over his chief rival, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

In response to the question, “If the Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if that person was a candidate?”, 49 per cent of the respondents indicated Uhuru would be their choice. And only 28 per cent were for Raila.

In the circumstances, it can be no consolation for the former PM, that the man who comes in third, Deputy President William Ruto, only received support from a mere three per cent of respondents. The gap between Uhuru and Raila is the stuff of landslide victories.

But it is in this context that we must remember what opinion polls really reveal. They are not in any way an indication of how Kenyans will vote in 2017. These numbers are merely a ‘snapshot’ of how Kenyans feel right now. Nor are they hard to explain. When a country feels it is under attack, it is only natural for one and all to rally to the President’s call for unity. Indeed if there is anything at all surprising, it is that the numbers assigned to Uhuru were not higher.

The task that lies before the President, then, is to retain that level of support between now and the election. And to remember that, effective opposition propaganda can easily demolish any seemingly insurmountable lead.

And by the same token, Raila’s supporters can take consolation in the knowledge that about a year before the last Presidential election, it was their man who seemed to enjoy a huge lead over his likely competitors. But Uhuru slowly but surely gained ground over the weeks and months, so that by the time we were within a month of the election, the two leading candidates had more or less the same level of support in the polls.

So if Uhuru could catch up with Raila in 2013, there is no reason why Raila should not catch up with Uhuru in 2017.

Quote of the day:

"Legislation that names a specific private organisation to defund (rather than all organisations that engage in a particular activity) is improper and arguably unconstitutional." -

Justin A. Amash is an American attorney and Republican member of Congress. He was born on April 18. 1980.