The interesting aspect of the Kenyan politics is its uniqueness in succession. Immediately after every election since the reintroduction of multi-party democracy, the country reverts to election mode as politicians plan the succession of the regime.
The winning coalition partners fall out as soon as they take the oath of office. The losers disintegrate and find themselves scattered as new alliances are built. On both sides of the political divide, bitterness is registered as claims and counter claims of betrayal fly with reckless abandon. Old friends become new enemies as bridges are quickly build to establish new collaborations between old enemies.
Therefore, since 1992, only two parties have ever survived an election, old KANU and ODM. KANU has been undergoing witling to the extent that its members in parliament cannot today dare debate on its behalf. Whether it will present any candidates in the 2027 general election remains a miraculous expectation.
ODM on the other hand has survived on the strength of the party leader’s charisma. Raila Odinga has been able to demonstrate a rare political staying power that has baffled both his foes and allies. He has outlived most of his competitors and his loyal command troops. It is in this context that the country finds itself tightly gripped by the vice of succession of political leadership at the apex of the famed largest party in Africa after CCM and ANC.
It becomes a subject of national debate because any instability in ODM has far reaching ramifications for the national political fabric. This is so since the character of its mystic leader and pervasive nature has impact across the nation’s political psyche. Matters have been further complicated by the recent upheavals at the Hustler Centre occasioned by power intrigues.
The tension has come about by the apparent fallout between President William Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua. While he has been careful not to blame his boss and instead accuse unnamed close friends of the President, pundits agree that he is pointing fingers at his hustler brother.
Political leaders from the larger Central region have gleefully taken this anticipated collapse of the camaraderie between Ruto and Gachagua. Many of them had worked hard for the Hustler movement and expected to be rewarded with the second national slot. They missed out surprisingly to Gachagua whom they considered too old for their ranks and burdened by significant historical baggage.
Formed in 2007, ODM was the result of a coalition between the renegade LDP brigade in the NARC government and official opposition party KANU. It strategically incorporated the core civil society leadership in its ranks. It was such a behemoth that at the constitutional referendum of November, 2005, then President Mwai Kibaki-led Banana team lost resoundingly. The country rejected the proposed laws by 62 per cent of the vote. This was more or less the margin with which Kibaki had won the 2002 general elections.
Even though KANU party chairman, Uhuru Kenyatta abandoned the movement soon after, most of his troops especially from Rift Valley, Ukambani and Coast remained behind. Uhuru would later in the year shelve his presidential quest in support of Kibaki’s reelection. The spanner in the works thrown by Mugambi Imanyara by secretly registering ODM could not deter the spirit of the movement. At a meeting in Maanzoni, LDP agreed to dissolve and together with the KANU brigades, ODM-Kenya was registered.
Raila and Kalonzo Musyoka engaged in a fierce tussle for the party’s presidential flag at the general elections. Daniel Maanzo as secretary general of the party openly vouched for Musyoka to the consternation of the majority of the senior party leaders. However, behind the scenes, Otieno Kajuang’ managed to corner Mugambi Imanyara and enticed him to surrender the original ODM. The sigh of relief was palpable across the opposition population. What Musyoka remained with was less than half of the Chungwa followers. The worth of the certificate held by Maanzo stumbled like the shares of a collapsing blue chip corporation.
ODM-Kenya went into the general election as the Kamba party. The duel was firmly between Kibaki’s new party, PNU and ODM. ODM quickly merged the LDP and KANU grassroots leaders and selected delegates for the party’s conference at Kasarani. Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi put an impressive show at the presidential candidate nominations.
Joseph Nyagah came in a distant third as Najib Balala threw in the towel in favour of Raila before the commencement of the exercise. Predictably Raila won and was given the mandate to be the party leader and its presidential candidate. The other contestants joined and formed what became the pentagon which was soon after joined by Charity Ngilu.
ODM has never considered the question of succession especially at the top most leadership. Attempts have been made to conduct elections but they have never been conclusive or overtly successful. The 2015 party elections were considered the best opportunity for the party’s leadership transition. It was never to be.
The juggernaut that was presented by the young flamboyant leaders led by Hassan Joho and Ababu Namwamba was brought to a screeching halt and later scattered to the four winds. An army christened Men in Black appeared from apparent nowhere and ballot boxes at Kasarani were no more. The delegates conference was postponed on security grounds and a negotiated settlement arranged. That made Joho deputy party leader alongside Wycliffe Oparanya and Namwamba secretary general.
Raila found some breathing space to organize his fourth stab at the presidency. It became a taboo to contemlate thought of his succession. Events were organised to revitalise and reenergise his political bases and at the same time liquidate perceived non conformists such as Dalmas Otieno, Namwamba and Otuoma. Other key western Kenya leaders rejoined Raila in ODM in a replacement strategy through NASA led by Mudavadi.
The fourth attempt failed once again and NASA faced the challenge of succession and sustenance. ODM deliberately starved its partners ANC, Wiper and FORD-Kenya of the national political parties’ fund from the exchequer. It cleverly removed key leaders from other parties from parliamentary responsibilities. Moses Wetangula later bitterly remarked that the divorce would be noisy, messy and painful.
However, these steps were taken so as to strategically forestall the anticipated Raila succession. Mudavadi had hoped to fly the NASA flag at the 2022 elections as well as Joho. Consequently, Mudavadi and Wetangula jumped ship and later joined forces with Ruto in the Kenya Kwanza coalition for the 2022 general elections. Joho bid his time but played uncharacteristically lukewarm role in the Raila led Azimio coalition campaigns.
The fifth loss by Raila at the presidential elections has come with some painful realities to the ODM fraternity. Kenya has a concrete mass of new voters whose language is not in synch with the second liberation movement philosophy. The physical exhaustion of Raila as a political operative and party leader is no longer concealable.
The enigma of Africa today has no qualms exhibiting fatigue and choosing healthy activities above bravado streetwise activities as sacrifice for the national agenda. He seems to have accepted the fate of the best president that Kenya never had. The African Union Commission Chair has presented a great opportunity and blessing in disguise. These circumstances have made the succession of Raila as a Luo and national political leader as well as ODM party leader specifically inevitable.
Discussions around the subject are however still muted and subjected to confidential communication. Politics being the game that it is, such happenings cannot escape the interest of players at national and grassroots levels. At the grassroots, it is pain and anguish as the general membership face the future without the omnipresent and omnipotent Raila Odinga.
Otieno Kajwang' once quipped that Baba is always right and if he is wrong refer to the first answer. Raila has thus led ODM as Plato’s philosopher king. His imminent exit has therefore set in motion activities to find a suitable replacement at the helm. This has brought with it anxiety and confusion among the general membership. As the top leaders jostle for recognition and possible acclamation, the process has become dicey with the happenings at UDA.
Ruto appears to have mended fences with Raila and is actively pushing his AUC bid. This has complicated matters for the ODM leaders who had rushed to join the government bandwagon hoping to escape the tight grip of Raila in ODM. President Ruto is now fishing freely in the ODM waters without hindrance and does not need the access through these turncoats. He can confidently afford to ignore the noise from his deputy and plant new seeds for harvesting at the 2027 election season.
Among the remaining loyalists, the tussle between the old guards led by Oparanya and Joho on the one hand and the fresh blood represented by Babu Owino on the other is threatening to tear the party down the middle. Lost in this ruckus is the middle tier and third generation of the second liberation movement led by John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi and Edwin Sifuna as the current secretary general.
The fiery speech by Sifuna during the funeral of Senator Tom Ojienda’s mother captivated the spirit of the Luo nation. It was immediately declared that perhaps “OTEKU” has captured him. In the meantime, Raila has famously remarked that Addis Ababa is just but a flight away. This is interpreted as an indication that he is not about to pass the button. The membership and general followers of ODM therefore find themselves between a rock and a hard place while staring at oblivion in the deep sky blue seas.
Political and public policy analyst