The win by the newly-formed United Democratic Alliance in the Kiambaa MP by-election has ignited conversations on what awaits leaders eyeing the Mt Kenya vote in 2022.
UDA’s Njuguna Wanjiku upset the Jubilee side after garnering 21,773 votes translating to 50 per cent, against Kariri Njama’s 21,265 about 49 per cent.
The election was touted as a supremacy battle pitting President Uhuru Kenyatta against his deputy William Ruto, loosely put as a race between the two sides.
Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung'wa said the election outcome sent a message with serious consequences for those who don’t heed the signs.
Though with a minuscule margin of 500 votes, political pundits say the results have a bearing in the 2022 election, especially for the political bigwigs eyeing support in the vote-rich region.
Their take is that the election proves that the mountain is evenly split – at 50:50, between those who are against Ruto and those in support of the DP, and stands to shape public opinion on either side’s support.
They also hold that the vote outcome would affect coalition building at the national level.
ODM leader Raila Odinga, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, and Ruto are some of the big names angling for a windfall from the region’s vote after Uhuru exits.
Speaker Justin Muturi, among other leaders from the region, is also angling to be the one calling the shots at the negotiations for the 2022 stakes.
Some observers think that the results would affect Ruto the most, having been perceived as the main anticipated beneficiary of the region’s vote.
Even with the apparent 50 per cent support, the DP is said to have a lot of work to do in terms of coalition building, managing nominations, and turning out the vote.
The results have also been viewed as impacting heavily, on the immediate front, the ongoing merger talks between Raila Odinga’s ODM party and the ruling outfit.
Of concern is whether ODM would want to continue conversations with a party that appears to be getting weaker by the day, having failed to deliver a vote at the President’s backyard.
Those watching the unfolding events further hold that the outcome means that the Kenyatta factor no longer counts in the region, especially coming close after Jubilee’s humiliating defeat by the little-known PEP party in Juja.
It is also argued that the results may not translate to the general elections considering the efforts put by parties in a by-election.
Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru agrees that the election outcome was a cautionary statement to the would-be main players in the region’s politics – Jubilee and UDA.
She said for Jubilee, the word was that its core supporters are unhappy and urgent action is needed to forestall further downwards slide.
“For UDA this is probably the best they will do in Central Kenya,” Waiguru said.
“That should worry DP Ruto who needs 101 per cent of Mt Kenya support if his candidacy is to convert to the State House.”
Political analysts Martin Andati, Kabando wa Kabando, lawyer Mugambi Imanyara, and Prof Peter Kagwanja commonly agreed it has implications on 2022 choices, the difference being the margins of such impact.
Andati says that much as DP Ruto may have bragging rights for winning the popular vote in the just concluded by-election, he has to rejig his strategy lest he gets only 50 per cent of the vote.
“It will affect Ruto in a big way. He doesn’t have the 90 per cent that people have been saying he has. He could be having 50 per cent or less. There will be other issues like nomination fallouts that would undermine those numbers,” Andati said.
“The Jubilee presidency was hinged on the duopoly, meaning that if there’s a problem in one side, it affects the other.”
There are also concerns that with Mt Kenya remaining uncertain on whether it would have a candidate in the presidential poll, there would be serious voter apathy.
You may say that someone has performed well, but at a great cost.
This is argued as one that would affect the presidential poll in a very big way, considering that missing a paltry 10 per cent of Mt Kenya translates to a loss of about 700,000 votes.
Andati argues that if there is suppression, and a turnout of 60 per cent; the other 40 per cent would be a huge margin.
“The NASA numbers are intact, much as they have issues. The numbers that were in NASA were not necessarily Raila numbers but were anti-Ruto and anti-Uhuru.”
For his part, Kabando said the results show that the mountain has moved.
“Kiambaa was a protest vote against President Kenyatta, a rejection of the rot in Jubilee, and huge protest against the BBI.”
The BBI question was among the messages that featured in Wanjiku’s campaigns, where Njama was treated as a pro-BBI candidate.
A recent Tifa poll revealed that Mt Kenya is strongly opposed to the constitutional changes at 57 per cent, the second after Northeastern at 73 per cent.
Kabando holds the vote garnered by Njama were not purely because of the President and Jubilee’s support but the politician’s own attachments with the people.
Had it been another name on the ballot, the ruling party would have done miserably in the vote characterized by high drama.
“Kariri Njama was popular and would have defeated Paul Koinange in 2017. His votes cannot be taken to anybody. Wanjiku was a non-entity. His vote is purely for the hustlers,” the former Mukurweini MP said.
Wanjiku’s crowds were characterized by faces of young people, a constituency that is said to be critical for those bidding in 2022.
Kabando observed that Njama got the traditional vote of people – mostly elderly, who don’t want to disrupt the authority.
To Imanyara, the outcome is not a true reflection of the general election, but proof that UDA and Jubilee are the two parties to watch in the Mt Kenya region.
His take is that candidates and their supporters concentrate efforts to establish that they are the strongest in that particular area in a by-election.
“They spend a lot of resources to prove this but the same cannot be deployed when there are elections across the country. You may say that someone has performed well, but at a great cost,” the 2017 Meru Senator candidate said.
“One can conclude that the Jubilee and UDA are the parties to watch in 2022 as the main parties in that region if all factors remain the same,” he said.
Kagwanja said the loss was since Uhuru did not go to campaign for the Jubilee candidate. ”Had he gone, the story would have been different.”
“Even if he didn’t just go to campaign but took development. The people of Mt Kenya listen to him but you can’t speak to one who is not talking,” he said.
“People are assuming he has nothing to do with politics but this means his presidency has entered a lame-duck phase early.”
Kagwanja holds that many MPs would be scampering to UDA with the poll outcome eating into the merger between ODM and Jubilee.
“Why would you want to merge with a party that is losing? I weep for our people as our politics has entered a crossroad,” he said.
Edited by Kiilu Damaris
