Jubilee predicts Uhuru to win by 52 per cent
Strategists within the Jubilee Coalition are predicting a first-round win with its flagbearer Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta beating Cord's Raila Odinga with close to one million votes.
A strategy document, prepared by the Jubilee team using the just released voter numbers and seen by the Star, predicts that Uhuru will garner 5 million against Raila's 4.2 million votes, while other candidates will share close to a million votes, if the election attracts a 71 per cent voter turnout.
The assumption in the statistics is that out of the 14,337,399 registered voters only 9,695,166 will turn up to vote on March 4, and the previous voter turnouts in the various regions will be maintained.
The predictions are likely to stir up the political scene ahead of the presidential poll which is already shaping up as a two-horse race between Raila and Uhuru.
The Jubilee strategy document shows that Uhuru wins by 52 per cent, Raila comes in second with 44 per cent while the other candidates garner 5 per cent of the votes in the first round.
The report shows that Uhuru will win with a landslide in 15 counties taking 71 per cent of the votes while Raila will get 99 per cent in Siaya, Kisumu, Migori and Homa Bay.
The prediction is that Uhuru will take 2.9 million votes out of an anticipated 3.5 million in the 15 counties with Raila taking 424,144. The Uhuru team projects that Raila will take 1.04 million votes out of an anticipated 1.05 million cast in Luo Nyanza with Uhuru only getting 10,569 votes.
According to Uhuru's strategists, his running-mate, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, will comfortably bring in some 1.1 million votes from 11 counties in Rift Valley against Raila's 334,428.
The statisticians assume that the Jubilee Coalition has a firm grip on Kiambu, Muranga, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, Tharaka, Laikipia, Nakuru, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Wajir and Mandera under Uhuru.
The Jubilee strongholds perceived to be under the control of Ruto are Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Bomet, Kericho, Turkana, Samburu, Narok, West Pokot and Garissa.
Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Kisii, Nyamira, Tana River, Taita Taveta have been classified as the swing vote counties with Raila beating Uhuru in all of them except in Kisii and Nyamira.
The analysis assumes equal popularity by Uhuru and Raila in Nairobi where they will get 45 per cent each of the votes cast. The assumption is that 925,030 of the 1,778,903 registered voters in Nairobi will vote with the two candidates getting 416,263 votes each.
The strategists indicate in their analysis that; "The percentages allocated to Uhuru were pessimistic while those given to Raila were optimistic, even in our strongholds. We have given equal popularity to Uhuru and Raila in Nairobi knowing full well the DPM shall take the lead."
The analysis allocates most of the votes in Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who is the PM's running-mate and Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa's perceived strongholds to Raila.
Interestingly, despite perching up with the Jubilee Coalition, Water Minister Charity Ngilu is not predicted to bring a lot of votes to the alliance.
The Jubilee strategists indicate that in the Kalonzo/Ngilu backyard of Kitui, Machakos and Makueni, Raila will take 648,969 of the predicted 690,392 votes cast with Uhuru taking only 34,520 votes.
The predictive data shows that Raila will take 536,434 of the 628,094 of the votes cast in Mudavadi's strongholds of Kakamega, Vihiga and Busia. The prediction is that Uhuru will get 24,255 votes in the same region while other candidates share 67,404.
In Eugene's perceived strongholds of Trans Nzoia and Bungoma, the Uhuru team predicts that Raila will sweep 293,242 of the 384,194 anticipated votes with the Jubilee candidate taking 59,588.
The statisticians are assuming that there will be a high voter turnout in Raila's strongholds at 80 per cent, Uhuru's at 75 per cent and Ruto's at 71 per cent. They assume the rest of the regions will record below 65 per cent voter turnout.
On December 27, 2007, the voter turnout was 69 per cent with Central Kenya leading at 82 per cent followed by Nyanza at 76 per cent and Rift Valley at 72 per cent. The same scenario is expected to play out in the coming election.