•Historically, this is a title the Kenyans have defended as if their lives depend on it.
• Since 1991, and the first of Moses Kiptanui’s three world titles, Kenya has won 13 of the 15 men’s steeplechase gold medals, the two exceptions being 2003 and 2005 when Saif Saeed Shaheen—a Kenyan-born athlete running for Qatar – claimed gold.
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If the form on the circuit is to be believed —and replicated on this bigger stage—then the men’s steeplechase final in Oregon on 18 July should come down to a two-man battle for gold between Ethiopia’s Lamecha Girma and Morocco’s Soufiane El Bakkali.
But all athletics fans know there’s a world of difference between those paced races and the cagey, cat-and-mouse affairs that tend to unfold in major championship finals.
The fate of the medals in the men’s steeplechase could hinge on what tactics are employed. If it’s an eight-minute final, or slightly below that, then it will come as a huge shock if it’s not—as it was at the Tokyo Olympics—Girma and El Bakkali duking it out for gold.
But the slower the race goes, the more they would be at risk from a pair of big-kickers from Kenya: Conseslus Kipruto and Benjamin Kigen.
Historically, this is a title the Kenyans have defended as if their lives depend on it. Since 1991, and the first of Moses Kiptanui’s three world titles, Kenya has won 13 of the 15 men’s steeplechase gold medals, the two exceptions being 2003 and 2005 when Saif Saeed Shaheen—a Kenyan-born athlete running for Qatar – claimed gold.
Kipruto is the defending champion, and while his form this season has been unspectacular, he has a blueprint for succeeding off such a build-up.
In 2019 he went to the Doha World Championships with a season’s best of just 8:13.75 as he returned from a stress fracture in his ankle, but in the final, he clocked 8:01.35 to deny Girma gold in a photo finish. This year he has a best of 8:08.76, which placed him fourth in Rome last month, nine seconds behind Girma, before he coasted to third place at the Kenyan trials, choosing not to race for the win.
He’ll be joined in Eugene by Kigen and compatriots Leonard Bett and Abraham Kibiwott. Kibiwott is the quickest of that trio this year, clocking 8:06.73 to finish second in Rome, but Kigen—the Olympic bronze medallist in Tokyo – is the best kicker and would be highly dangerous in a slow race.
Girma, though, seems unlikely to let that happen. The Ethiopian ensured an honest pace in last year’s Olympic final and the 21-year-old has shown he can run under eight minutes almost at his leisure, dipping under that barrier three times in a 10-day spell earlier in the season.
But hopes of a first Ethiopian gold should be kept in check due to one particular statistic: Girma has raced El Bakkali seven times in his career and has only beaten him once — in the 2019 world final.
As such, El Bakkali will start as the heavy favourite. The 26-year-old Moroccan possesses all the attributes needed for success here: proficient hurdling, oceans of endurance, and— critically – a key change of gears in the home straight. He out-kicked Girma in Tokyo last year to win Olympic gold and did the same in Doha and Rabat this year, setting the world lead of 7:58.28 in the latter event.
He’s undoubtedly the current superman of the steeplechase, but if there is a kryptonite that could take him down then it’s a fully fit Kipruto.
The Kenyan has an 11-8 record against El Bakkali in this event, but it’s worth noting they’ve met five times in championship settings. The current tally? 5-0 to Kipruto. The Kenyan would pose a huge threat if still in touch with the leaders at the bell, but expect Girma, in particular, to do everything possible to run his rivals ragged long before then.
Girma will be joined by compatriots Hailemariyam Amare and Getnet Wale so he should have some assistance in keeping the pace strong, just as it was in Tokyo. Wale is an 8:05.21 athlete at his best and has wicked flat speed, with a 7:24.98 indoor 3000m to his name. He finished third in Rome earlier this year at 8:06.74 and fourth in both the Olympic final in Tokyo and the 2019 world final in Doha. Can he finally reach a global senior podium here? He’ll need to reach a new level if so. His teammate Amare will have similar goals, having clocked a PB of 8:06.29 in Rabat before doing the steeplechase-5000m double at the African Championships last month.
Evan Jager— the 2016 Olympic and 2017 World Championships medallist who trains in Portland, a two-hour drive north of Eugene — is sure to have huge support from the home crowd at his first major championship for five years. Since then Jager has been through a nightmare run of injuries, but he showed his class and resilience by clocking 8:17.29 to qualify at the US Championships last month, finishing second to Hillary Bor.
Bor was seventh in the Olympic final in 2016 and eighth in the world final in 2019 and with a best this year of 8:12.19, he’ll be hopeful of improving on those finishes in front of a home crowd that loves its distance running.