- Mt Kenya anger has to do with the possibility of the next President coming from outside its abode for 35 of 60 years since Independence
- The possibility of a stranger wielding state power ruffles
A succession plan can fail when the plot is imbued with irrational self-interest. Or when the conspirator-in-chief and his enablers have clashing visions. Or when they entertain the illusion of their capacity to manipulate the system.
President Uhuru Kenyatta is torn between these contradictions. But, as a student and beneficiary of President Moi's 2002 succession politics, Uhuru can still avoid a strategic logjam.
Early this month two senior presidential courtiers, described in media reports as 'Uhuru men', were still scouting for presidential projects. But they should consider what it takes to win against a raging opponent, with a deep pocket and a sense of entitlement.
Deputy President William Ruto has been on the campaign trail since 2017. He has attracted potential support. He too says, in jest, that he does not want to be anyone's project.
The exit of Baringo county, Senator Gideon Moi's turf, from the Building Bridges Initiative endorsement column, reduces the chances of Moi's son from being a viable project. The man could not even rally MCAs from his home constituency of Baringo Central.
Musalia Mudavadi, a former vice president, a 2007 presidential running mate, a 2013 presidential candidate, and a 2017 presidential campaign manager, is cautious. He detests the presidential project tag. But he also knows going solo is a ticket to oblivion.
The former Deputy Prime Minister knows he can blossom in a strong coalition. Such an alliance would guarantee him a promotion if the coalition wins and delivers on its campaign promises.
Raila Odinga is still widely expected to be the preferred presidential candidate. The overtures, especially from Central Kenya power brokers, give the impression he would be the head of a strong coalition.
The March 9, 2018, handshake with the President gave the ODM leader additional appeal in Uhuru's Central Jubilee base. But the reported division among 'Uhuru's men' sends mixed messages.
MPs allied to the Tangatanga faction of Jubilee have tribalised panic. They claimed in a letter they don't want Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi or Kalonzo Musyoka to succeed their Uhuru. They claim outsiders are not marketable in their clime. But they are rooting for Ruto - an outsider to the Mountain.
Such division could muddle the Uhuru succession. There is nothing to stop Ruto and Raila from sharing a presidential front that could torpedo the power plot. Uhuru and his men may not contain the possible tsunami.
Power brokers also target former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. But the former Mwingi North MP suffers low gravitas. There is also a doubtful network to fund his presidential campaign.
A key Kalonzo financier has complained of betrayal. The exit of former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama leaves a pocket leak. The division may slice off a chunk of the 2 million Kamba vote. Previous allies Governor Kivutha Kibwana and former Senator Johnson Muthama are standing on wheelbarrows.
The Machakos governor is pushing the Maendeleo Chap Chap, away from Kalonzo's Wiper Democratic Movement. A section of Uhuru men knows Kalonzo can at best anchor a winning coalition.
The President's Mt Kenya turf is angry. But this emotion is thawing after the Sagana rendezvous. They were angry not so much because Uhuru has not delivered the expected proceeds of state power to the mountain. They are restless because the President is leaving office without mentoring a homeboy as a successor.
The 40 or so MPs are not sulking because the President is decorous when he visits Kisumu. They are not impatient because the President raves when he is in Nyeri. It is not because Central brings out the worst in the President or that Kisumu excites the likeable side of Old Jomo's son.
Their anger has to do with the possibility of the next President coming from outside its abode for 35 of 60 years since Independence. The possibility of a stranger wielding state power ruffles.
Before the Sagana meeting, the 40 MPs and their audience had not understood that Uhuru is leaving for them a constitutional gain that could secure their future even without a homeboy president.
He simplified the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2020: It guarantees them more resources across the Mountain and its Diaspora that no future president would take away or give at a whim.
MPs allied to the Tangatanga faction of Jubilee have tribalised panic. They claimed in a letter they don't want Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi or Kalonzo Musyoka to succeed their Uhuru. They claim outsiders are not marketable in their clime. But they are rooting for Ruto - an outsider to the Mountain.
They say Uhuru promised to support Ruto. They say as a community of honour they will not betrayal the DP.
Kenyans with objective memories know post-Independence Kenya is a catalogue of betrayals. Some of the debts are responsible for sour ethnic relations. Central has been the beneficiary of breaches of some of these accords.
Uhuru will have to manage his men to avoid a succession backlash.