- Partisan politicians are shouting like hens when eagles snatch their chicks. But the Deep State, like a duck, is silent.
- It may have already reconstructed Kenya. From the succession wrangles, the DP does not seem to register in the Deep State's 2022 matrix.
When the Deep State—the shadow cabal of power influencers—whizzes, the political realm catches a cold. The political class—the power elite and those hoping to succeed them—have clashing symptoms of the same disease.
The Building Bridges Initiatives, a product of amity between President Uhuru Kenyatta and the People's President Raila Odinga, was not supposed to be a flashpoint for dissent. But it is because the bigger picture is lost in the skew of partisan politics.
One faction is baying to kill the initiative, even without appreciating its context. The positivists consider it a panacea for the country's post-Independence challenges. The challenges include simmering ethnic antagonism, recurrent divisive elections, ascendant corruption and dearth of national ethos.
The March 9, 2018, amity was supposed to mend a splintered polity. It would, in the expectations of its architects, remake a bleeding Kenya.
Some have panicked at the prospect of national inclusion through a restructured State. Creating more offices denies them monopoly of State power. Fighting corruption and reconsidering electoral regime do not sit well with agents of status quo.
This BBI thing is for Uhuru Kenyatta. He is the architect of BBI to extend power, like Kagame did in Rwanda; Museveni in Uganda, and Mugabe in Zimbabwe. This is not Uganda,"Emurua Dikirr MP Johana Ng'eno
After two years of blaming the 'handshake' for muddling Deputy President William Ruto's chances of succeeding President Uhuru Kenyatta, the critics are ready for direct assault. The Ruto Jubilee faction may have assigned Emurua Dikirr MP Johana Ng'eno to launch the assault. The MP says they shouldn't blame the stick. They are going for the stick holder.
"This BBI thing is for Uhuru Kenyatta. He is the architect of BBI to extend power, like Kagame did in Rwanda; Museveni in Uganda, and Mugabe in Zimbabwe. This is not Uganda," Ng'eno told a congregation in the South Rift last week.
But BBI advocates want changes that could repair the country. Expanding the Executive, they suppose, would aid national inclusion. It could also steer the 2022 elections away from the cyclical trajectory of violence.
Partisan politicians are shouting like hens when eagles snatch their chicks. But the Deep State, like a duck, is silent. It may have already reconstructed Kenya. From the succession wrangles, the DP does not seem to register in the Deep State's 2022 matrix.
On December 31, 2007, two men of high status fought at the swimming pool of a top hotel in Nairobi's Central Business District. A High Court judge and a shadow member of the power cabal, then associated with President Mwai Kibaki, staged their own post-election violence. It was a breach of peace no one reported to the police.
One of the combatants, a power insider, had walked out of a meeting in a private room at the hotel an hour earlier. He was at the swimming pool to vent the anxiety that had jolted the Deep State for four days. The country was waiting for the final results of the December 27, 2007, presidential election.
Earlier results, up to that morning, had placed the Opposition Orange Democratic Movement presidential candidate Raila Odinga in the lead. The meeting of the power cabal had decided to keep Kibaki in power.
The judge was offended when he was told, "We have decided President Kibaki shall be sworn-in for a second term a few hours from now." '"We have decided," the power insider had said with contemptuous finality.
The 'We' may be supporting BBI. The 'We' could be plotting to influence Uhuru’s succession. But this would not be the first or the last time the Deep State is influencing presidential succession.
Powerful allies of the incumbent, including then VP Moody Awori, had been evicted from the Funyula parliamentary seat. But they were not going to give up State power. The fight at the swimming pool was a preamble to the explosion that was shaping up across the country.
The 'We' may be supporting BBI. The 'We' could be plotting to influence Uhuru’s succession. But this would not be the first or the last time the Deep State is influencing presidential succession.
The divided Deep State of the 1970s imposed its will on the Jomo Kenyatta succession. One faction had influence and the economic wherewithal to impose its will. The other had a constitutional leverage to disguise vested interests.
The leader of the ascendant cabal was then Attorney General Charles Njonjo. They installed Moi, then Vice President, as the legitimate successor. They thought of him as a 'passing cloud'. The cloud lingered for 24 years to the chagrin of the kingmakers.
Wikipedia, the mobile dictionary, defines Deep State as a "clandestine government made up of hidden or covert networks of power operating independently of a State's political leadership, in pursuit of their own agenda and goals." Its members control finance, industry, military and intelligence. They are privy to State secrets ahead of the Cabinet.
The Deep State always has its way. It did not want Uhuru to succeed Kibaki in 2013, but the Deep State surrendered when vested interests converged. The President, then an International Criminal Court suspect, wasn't good for business. But they weren't ready for the alternative—a change-charged Raila presidency.
The Deep State might have decided who Uhuru's successor would not be. It may have its will, depending on how it plays its stakes. This uncertainty worries Ruto and his allies who have, for seven years now, treated the Uhuru succession as a fait accompli.