IGAD issues sixth failed rain season alert as drought bites

Most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are expected to receive below-normal rainfall over the next three months.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) during their latest climate outlook released on Wednesday said the forecast for the March to May (MAM) 2023 season points towards depressed rainfall and high temperatures.

According to the prediction, parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Uganda that have been most affected by the recent drought will experience a sixth failed consecutive rainfall season.

The delegates are meeting in Nairobi for the 63rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 63).

“There is a need for an immediate scaling-up of humanitarian and risk reduction efforts. National governments, humanitarian and development actors must adopt a no-regret approach before it’s too late,” IGAD’s Executive Secretary Dr Workneh Gebeyehu said.

According to the outlook wetter than normal conditions are expected over the cross-border areas of Ethiopia and South Sudan, north-western Kenya and parts of central and southern Tanzania.

Warmer than normal temperatures are likely to be witnessed across the region, particularly over northern and Western Kenya, Djibouti and Eritrea.

Others include Sudan, north-western South Sudan, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and parts of south-eastern and western Tanzania.

Dr Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director said the March to May season constitutes an important rainfall season, especially in the equatorial parts of the GHA where it contributes up to 60 per cent of the total annual rainfall.

“Even if the general conditions for the season do not look favourable, people can still take advantage of rainfall,” Artan said.

According to the experts, in the regions severely hit by drought, the current trends are worse than those observed during the 2010/11 drought.

The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) co-chaired by IGAD and FAO, estimates that close to 23 million people are currently highly food insecure in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia.

It is likely that the situation in the affected areas will intensify through the transition period to MAM 2023.

Beyond this point, the situation will be informed by the season's performance.

However, considering that 11 million livestock have already died and that the MAM harvests start around August, any positive impacts will be realized much later.

IGAD has convened a meeting with member states as the drought situation continues to worsen.

The forum aims to discuss the drought situation and enhance the ability of Member States to collect and process data for disaster forecasting.

The measures proposed will help reduce the gap between early warning and early action.

IGAD is a consortium of eight countries under the African Union Commission.

They include Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and Uganda.