Why battle for DP job could fracture ODM, UDA poll deal

A fierce political battle over President William Ruto’s 2027 running mate is threatening to derail ODM-UDA pre-election negotiations and fracture the broad-based government.

Such an outcome could deal Ruto a political blow and hand the Kalonzo Musyoka–Rigathi Gachagua-led united opposition a potent political weapon.

In recent days, allies of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki have drawn a line in the sand, vowing it is either their man for the second-highest office or no deal at all with the Orange party.

Amid the hardline stance from Mt Kenya leaders, Raila Odinga’s ODM has grown more assertive, openly declaring its intention to go for Kindiki’s job.

The Star has established that ODM Party Leader Oburu Odinga came under fire after suggesting in Kisumu that the Orange party was not after the DP seat.

“He [Oburu] was told he is messing up. Many insiders were very disappointed,” a source familiar with the developments said.

Some ODM leaders insist the party must secure powerful, constitutionally insulated offices.

Unlike most executive roles — where the President retains the power to hire and fire — the Deputy President’s position enjoys constitutional protection.

Other such offices include Speaker of the Senate and Speaker of the National Assembly.

In a clear sign that the mood had shifted, Oburu made a public U-turn over the weekend.

“That position of deputy president is what we are eying,” he said at the Coast.

One camp within ODM, associated with Oburu and chairperson Gladys Wanga, believes demanding the Deputy President’s slot offers the party a realistic path back to power.

Wanga, Treasury CS John Mbadi and Mining CS Hassan Joho are among those being touted for the position.

Coast leaders have mounted pressure, arguing that awarding the job to Joho would signal confidence in the region’s support.

“It is our sure path to power. The seat is public,” Oburu said, stirring a political beehive in the DP’s Mt Kenya backyard.

The jostling places Ruto in a catch-22.

If he retains Kindiki, he may struggle to solidify ties with ODM. If he drops the DP, he risks alienating Mt Kenya — a region critical to his electoral calculus.

Thika Town MP Alice Nganga fired the first warning shot: “If they say the DP seat is not for Kindiki, then we (from Mt Kenya) will exit the broad-based government.”

Kindiki himself has declared that his seat “is going nowhere,” with leaders from his Mt Kenya East backyard closing ranks behind him.

His allies have warned they will abandon any political camp that supports removing “their son” from office.

Tharaka Nithi Governor Muthomi Njuki said Mt Kenya East leaders were ready to part ways with anyone attempting to trade away the Deputy President’s position.

He argued that the region earned its place in government through votes and loyalty and would not accept being sidelined by elite negotiations in Nairobi.

“It is a dream. It is minus, can never be a plus,” the governor said, adding that they can even send Kindiki to ODM.

Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri added that the region would be its own enemy if it fails to marshal the votes Ruto needs.

Behind the tough talk lies a delicate balancing act for the President.

Ruto is keen to formalise cooperation with ODM to secure a reliable vote cushion ahead of 2027. But every overture to Raila’s party fuels resentment in Mt Kenya, where many view the Deputy President’s seat as their political insurance policy.

“In this decision on who will handle this job, William has a tricky balancing act. If he denies Mt Kenya, he stands to lose even the little votes left, if it doesn’t go to ODM, he opens another battlefront,” Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, a Gachagua ally, said.

For political pundits, the standoff has created a paradox in which both ODM and UDA risk weakening themselves.

ODM’s bargaining power appears to be shrinking as the party grapples with internal divisions. Observers note that a party consumed by internal fights struggles to negotiate from a position of strength.

UDA, meanwhile, is boxed in by its own base. The firmer Mt Kenya leaders dig in, the less room Ruto has to manoeuvre.

“Even so, ODM is within its rights to demand a lion’s share of positions in Ruto’s government,” political commentator Mark Bichachi said.

Ugenya MP David Ochieng warned against elite power-sharing deals that sideline grassroots voices, arguing that such arrangements undermine democracy.

Whether President Ruto can reconcile a restless regional base with ambitious ODM suitors remains uncertain.

What is already clear is that the battle for Kindiki’s job has become a stress test for the country’s two largest parties — and an early signal of the high-stakes politics ahead.

Yet other voices within ODM strongly backing the broad-based arrangement disagree with the push for the DP seat.

They argue that chasing the position is short-sighted.

Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai is among them.

“The DP slot is a consolation prize, not power. In Kenya's politics, the Deputy President is the spare tyre. You only matter when the President has a puncture.”

“A DP from ODM under Ruto would have zero independent authority. No control over the budget. No command over security organs.

“No real say in appointments. Just ceremonies, foreign trips, and the constant fear of impeachment if you grow too popular or step out of line,” Alai said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

ODM risks hollowing itself out through internal warfare over a seat it may never secure. UDA risks alienating its most loyal voting bloc in pursuit of a coalition that could fracture the ruling party from within.