High public debt threatens fertiliser subsidies and country’s food security

A farmer./AI ILLUSTRATION

Joseph Kamiti, from Kihuti in Karatina, Nyeri County, has farmed his three-acre plot for over a decade, growing maize, beans, and tea. He says farming is no longer as productive or profitable as it was in earlier times.

“It has become very expensive to farm,” he says.

“Even when I invest in inputs like fertiliser, I struggle to break even.”

To support his family and keep his farm running, Kamiti supplements his income with poultry and dairy farming on the same piece of land. But for many farmers like him, the soaring cost of inputs is difficult to offset, and this is the reality for countless smallholder farmers across Kenya who, despite benefiting from subsidised fertiliser and seeds, still struggle to break even.

Timothy Njagi, a researcher and food security expert at the African Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes (ANAPRI), warned that Kenya’s high public debt is squeezing the fiscal space available to support farmers.

“When the government borrows heavily, some of that borrowing funds the subsidy programmes,” he explained. “That means fewer resources are left for other critical services.”

He added that since 2022, the Kenyan government has been the primary financier of fertiliser subsidies, with little support from development partners.

Kenya’s fertiliser subsidy programme was formally reintroduced in the 2021/22 financial year after global prices surged to nearly Sh6,000 per 50kg bag, making the input unaffordable for many farmers.

Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development shows that in 2022, the government allocated Sh3.55 billion to subsidise 71,000 metric tonnes (1.42 million 50kg bags) of fertiliser.

This followed President William Ruto’s directive during his inauguration on 13 September 2022 that 1.4 million bags of subsidised fertiliser be provided to farmers at Sh3,500 per 50kg bag, down from Sh6,500, as part of efforts to ease the cost of living.

Parliamentary records show that in the 2023/24 financial year, the government allocated Sh4.5 billion to supply 90,000 tonnes of fertiliser and 2,750 tonnes of lime to farmers.

The National Treasury later reported that by February 2024, 6.5 million farmers had benefited from the programme. In the 2025/26 budget, the Treasury again earmarked Sh8 billion for fertiliser subsidies, and today farmers are buying fertiliser at a subsidised price of Sh2,500 per bag.

Despite these investments, production—especially of staple maize—remains low, and Kenya still relies heavily on imports to meet its monthly demand of 4 million 90kg bags.

Njagi argued that relying on public debt to fund subsidies limits the government’s ability to support other essential agricultural services.

“With high debt, the government’s fiscal space shrinks,” he explained.

“There’s less money for extension services, which are vital for farmers to get advice, maximise yields, and adopt better farming practices.”

He also warned that if subsidies don’t deliver yield improvements, the long-term effect could be higher food prices.

“You spend money, but if production doesn’t increase, then you end up with inflation. Consumers will pay more, and food insecurity will worsen.”

Another concern, he noted, is nutritional security, stating that currently, the subsidy programme heavily targets maize fertiliser, promoting energy-rich staples but neglecting other, more nutrient-dense crops. Njagi said this could deepen nutritional insecurity.

He pointed out that overhauling how the subsidy is structured could yield better results than simply pouring more money in it.

He noted inefficiencies in input markets, late deliveries, and timely access to inputs and information—rather than cartels—are the real problems for many farmers.

Njagi said the government could address these by improving infrastructure, ensuring transparent pricing, and relaying timely input information. “That way, farmers can make better decisions without over-reliance on subsidies,” he said.

He also recommended a more strategic subsidy design that aligns with long-term goals. This, Njagi said, includes using subsidies to promote new or more efficient technologies, not just lower costs.

“Diversify support beyond maize by piloting subsidy models for other crops, involve the private sector to strengthen entire value chains, and reduce competition between government programmes and businesses,” he said.

“In addition, implement robust tracking to measure yields, returns on subsidy spending, and progress over time to ensure the debt used for subsidies yields tangible benefits.”

According to the Controller of Budget, Kenya’s public debt stood at 65.7 per cent of GDP by June 2024.

Njagi stated that this debt burden limits the government’s ability to expand or maintain welfare programmes, including subsidy schemes. He added that high debt could make it hard to sustain even critical nutrition-support initiatives, which often require stable, ongoing government funding.

To make the subsidy programme more sustainable and effective, Njagi recommended redesigning the subsidy to support value-chain development and not just input provision, and involving the private sector more deeply, so that the government doesn’t crowd out businesses but rather builds on their capacities.

“Ensure fairness and equity in subsidy distribution, especially by extending support to under-served crops, build clear metrics so the government can track the return on its subsidy spending in terms of yield gains, food security, and nutrition,” said Njagi, adding that the government should also address input market inefficiencies directly to reduce wastage and improve access