OMWENGA: Ruto could drop Gachagua, end rotation of presidency between two communities

The turning point in this recent history was the handshake between then-President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga. This event marked the beginning of the end of the alliance between Uhuru and his then-deputy, now President, William Ruto.

As the rift between Uhuru and Ruto unfolded, it was a surprising turn of events for many. The two men, who were seemingly inseparable in their first term, were at odds. However, for those who were more attuned to the political landscape, signs of tension between Uhuru and Ruto were evident in the latter part of their first term.

So much so, that there was an effort by some to try and convince Uhuru to drop Ruto as his running mate in 2017.

These efforts failed, as those who prevailed against it were right that Uhuru dropping Ruto would be political suicide as doing so would eviscerate his chances of being reelected, regardless of whom he chose as his new running mate.

As the rift between Uhuru and Ruto escalated from a typical political dispute to something far more damaging, the two men found themselves in a bitter battle. This conflict reached its climax in the 2022 elections, a contest that saw Ruto outmanoeuvre both Uhuru and Raila, to be sworn in as president.

Someone who knows no better would say Ruto outsmarted “the system” but to say so would be admitting one doesn’t know much.

One of the notable aspects of the 2022 elections, particularly relevant to this piece, was the selection of Ruto's running mate and now Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua. This was a surprising move, as very few people were familiar with Gachagua. For those who didn’t know him, he quickly gained a reputation for his strong feelings of anger and resentment towards the Kenyatta family.

No one other than Ruto and those who advised him knows why Gachagua was picked as Ruto’s running mate — and yes, some say Gachagua forced himself upon the Karen residence and has remained there since. But Ruto could not have found someone to trash Uhuru and the Kenyatta family as Gachagua did.

Several glaring ironies are evident from this recent history.

First, much as there was a rift between Uhuru and Ruto, there is now undoubtedly one between Ruto and Gachagua. We know the rift between Uhuru and Ruto was over the handshake, and specifically, Uhuru’s genuine desire to end the rotation of the presidency between two communities. He wanted to allow the labour of a mother from a different community to produce a son who could become president. The desire was crushed by those who thought otherwise, or didn’t care.

The rift between Ruto and Gachagua is all about succession politics for 2032. The irony here is, watching Ruto’s moves, it just may be the case, as with Uhuru, that Ruto has seen the wisdom of ending this rotation of the presidency between two communities. Perhaps he is to do what it takes to have a non-Kalenjin and non-Kikuyu succeed him in 2032.

This brings up the second irony: much as there was an effort to have Uhuru drop Ruto in his bid for reelection in 2018, there is at least talk of having Ruto drop Gachagua as his running mate in 2027. Much as Uhuru was told dropping Ruto would be political suicide, Ruto is being told the same thing about dropping Gachagua.

However, Ruto has demonstrated more than once that he is capable of pulling off the impossible, and if he does it again, he will see himself back in the State House for the second term. And he would set the country up to end the rotation of the presidency between two communities by grooming and installing someone other than those salivating for the office.

Doing the latter would be a legacy that most Kenyans would cheer.