Undecided voters shrink as Ruto, Raila ratings soar

Presidential rivals William Ruto and Raila Odinga won over more undecided voters to boost their latest popularity ratings, with a run-off most likely in next month’s General Election.

According to the latest opinion poll by Tifa Research, Raila leapt from 42 per cent popularity in June to stand at 46.7 per cent in July.

Ruto on the other hand jumped from 39 per cent to 44.4 per cent during the same period, with only nine days to next month's general election.

Undecided voters in June were 10 per cent but the figure reduced to 5.2 per cent at the time of the latest survey.

The poll was conducted between July 21 and 26.

The poll shows Roots Party presidential candidate George Wajackoyah and Agano's Mwaure Waihiga came in third and fourth with 1.8 per cent and 0.1 per cent respectively.

"It will be a very close election and voter turnout might make all the difference," lead researcher Tom Wolf said while releasing the results at a Nairobi hotel on Friday.

Only 5.2 per cent of the respondents said they still had not made up their minds on whom they would want to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The results registered a slight improvement for Ruto, who had an approval rating of 39 per cent in June against Raila’s 42 per cent.

Ruto was ahead in February with a 38 per cent rating against Raila’s 27 per cent, but in May the Azimio flag bearer had overtaken Ruto with an approval of 39 per cent against Kenya Kwanza’s candidate at 35 per cent.

On Friday, Wolf said it is highly likely that there would be a run-off given the results of the latest survey.

“It is only days remaining until the August 9 election. As such, unless some unexpected and dramatic events occur during this short remaining period, it is unlikely that the figures it captured would change much in the meantime,” Wolf said.

"Based on these survey results, at least, it appears that a second round run-off contest is a very possible eventuality, if far from certain," Wolf said.

In contrast to Tifa’s previous surveys, since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, the latest survey was conducted face-to-face in both English and Kiswahili.

Views were collected from 2,056 respondents and it was not limited to those with mobile phones.

The margin of error was +/- 2.16 %.

Raila has the biggest support in Nyanza, but also enjoys popularity in Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, South Rift and Western.

Ruto enjoys most support in Central Rift and Mt Kenya.

Raila’s approval rating in Nyanza is 80 per cent followed by Western 61 per cent, South Rift (60 per cent), Nairobi (59 per cent), Lower Eastern (58 per cent), Coast (57 per cent), Northern (36 per cent), Mt Kenya (27 per cent) and Central Rift (15 per cent).

Ruto enjoys the biggest support in Central Rift (83 per cent) followed by Mt Kenya (66 per cent), Coast region (37 per cent), Lower Eastern (35 per cent), South Rift and Nairobi (34 per cent)|, Northern (31 per cent), Western (26 per cent) and Nyanza (12 per cent).

Tifa indicated that they may release another opinion poll before next Thursday.

Opinion poll companies have until Thursday to release their last findings on electoral seats being contested in the August general election.

This is so that they can be in compliance with The Publication of Electoral Opinion Polls Act.

"A person shall not publish the results of any electoral opinion poll on the day of the election or during the period of five days immediately preceding the date of an election," the Act says.

Wolf said that the addition of a woman to the Azimio ticket (Martha Karua) might have drawn a greater proportion of that gender to participate in the election.

“It might have energised more women to vote than have done in the past though not necessarily for Raila-Karua ticket,” he explained.

The Raila-Karua received most voting-intention support in Nyanza, but also enjoyed support in Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, South Rift and Western.

For the Ruto-Rigathi Gachagua ticket, they enjoy most support in Central Rift and Mt Kenya.

Wajackoyah-Justina Wamae attract most of their support in Coast and Lower Eastern, while Waihiga-Ruth Mutua only registered slight support in Coast, Nyanza and Mt Kenya.

Support for Ruto since Tifa’s last survey in June has increased in six of the nine zones, especially in his home Central Rift and Mt Kenya (20 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively).

However, he has suffered major declines in Northern and Western zones (-24 per cent and -11 per cent respectively), according to the poll.

Compared to the results from the June survey, the distribution of expressed voting intentions for Raila has changed across the country. The Azimio candidate has gained in all nine zones apart from Central Rift (-5 per cent). His biggest gain has been in South Rift, Nyanza, Western and Lower Eastern (+15, +13, +13 and +12 per cent respectively).

The survey also gauged the satisfaction among Kenyans on the performance of President Uhuru.

Results showed Kenyans are most satisfied with Uhuru infrastructure development record which includes roads, standard gauge railway, and other relevant projects.

Uhuru is also credited for improving security in the country. His administration is credited for reducing the activities of criminal gangs and al Shabab in the country.

However, the areas of least satisfaction are commodity pricing and fighting corruption in the government.

Economic hardship (40 per cent), increased public debt (18 per cent) and increased corruption are top three negative things Uhuru will be remembered for.

Edited by Henry Makori